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Supporting the transition to natural gas in China
Vivid Economics supported Shell in Phase Two of the company’s ongoing collaboration with the Development Research Center of the State Council of China (DRC). The collaboration culminated in a book: ‘China’s Gas Development Strategies’, which was published on 30th June by Springer, available here.
This book examines how China can increase the share of natural gas in its energy system. China’s energy strategy has global ramifications and impact, and central to this strategy is the country’s transition from coal to gas. With the Chinese government’s strategic aim to increase the share of gas in the energy mix from 5.8% in 2014 to 10% and 15% in 2020 and 2030 respectively, the book outlines how China can achieve its gas targets. It provides both quantifiable metrics and policy measures for the transition. The research and the resulting recommendations of this study have fed directly into the Chinese government’s 13th Five-Year Plan, and provide unique insights into the Chinese government and policymaking.
For more information on this and our other work, please email us.
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Vivid develops blueprint for businesses seeking SDG leadership: In collaboration with the UN Global Compact, the world's largest corporate sustainability initiative, we are developing the Blueprint for Business Leadership on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The short Blueprint provides a framework for those companies aiming towards SDG leadership. It presents leadership as an evolving process as businesses continuously repeat three steps: principled prioritisation of potential positive and negative impacts, taking action on them, and sharing learnings internally and externally. Leading action on the SDGs meets five leadership qualities: intentionality, ambition, consistency, collaboration, and accountability. Following from the Blueprint, we identify key actions that businesses can take to advance the SDGs in a series of 17 SDG Briefs. These Briefs highlight how businesses can apply the five qualities framework and account for the inherent interconnectedness of the SDGs to ensure that their action is leading. The first drafts of all Briefs will be launched on the 21st September in New York, where the Blueprint takes centre stage as this year’s headline publication at the UN Global Compact Leaders Summit.
Please keep an eye on our Twitter account (@VividEconomics) and the hashtag #GCLeadersSummit to follow the news around the launch, or email our team.
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Mining investment moves towards serving the global battery market: In our last newsletter, we mentioned that we had advised BHP regarding the role of batteries in the energy system and the impact on commodity demand to 2050. Our analysis identified the major determinants of market size, and how this feeds through to demand for nickel, copper, cobalt and other minerals. Since then, the UK and France have revealed plans to phase out fossil fuel vehicles by 2040, and the Netherlands and Norway will do so by 2025. Against the backdrop of this growing electric vehicle (EV) market, BHP revealed plans to transform itself into the world’s biggest suppliers of nickel sulphate — a key component in lithium-ion batteries that power EVs. These developments raise important questions: on the supply side, for resource constraints on key battery minerals, and on the demand side, the ability of electricity markets to accommodate electric vehicles.
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Introducing deforestation and regional land use management tool, IMAGE: Vivid’s new deforestation and regional land use management tool, IMAGE (Inventaire, Modelisation economique, Alerte et Gestion Environmentale) is now well advanced. Developed for the government and agencies of Ivory Coast, it combines a very high resolution (10 metre) land use classification system, natural capital accounts and fortnightly forest loss alert system on an interactive data handling and analysis platform. The platform has been developed by Vivid’s in-house team using cutting-edge techniques, with image processing partner RSAC. The tool is part-funded through the UK Government’s aid budget, and aims to support the government of the Ivory Coast to stem the loss of virgin tropical forest to agriculture. It is the latest in Vivid’s growing portfolio of tropical forestry projects.
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Bridging the climate change information gap for financial institutions: Vivid Economics was commissioned by the UK Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) to review the data and modelling tools used by the financial sector to assess climate-related risks and opportunities and to recommend a strategy for how the government might encourage deeper engagement by the sector. The study included a rapid evidence assessment of existing literature and in-depth interviews with private financial institutions to identify information needs and potential solutions. In the final report, we made a list of policy recommendations to BEIS spanning improvements of existing data, curation of new information platforms and the broader role for the government in aligning incentives across the financial investment chain. Our work will be used as input in the broader government efforts to make the UK financial sector a leading hub for climate-related disclosure, investment and risk management.
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Assessing policies for transformational infrastructure programs: Vivid and its partners the Sustainable Development and Policy Institute, Pakistan, were engaged by the Overseas Development Institute to assess the planning of large-scale transformational infrastructure programmes in water-stressed regions, with an in-depth case study on the $46bn China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Transformational programmes can cause a step change in economic development, with potential attendant benefits to the poor and the environment. However, without proactive planning and resource management policies there is a risk that countries will miss out on one-off opportunities to extend water access to the poor and incur irreversible ecological damage by locking in inefficient technologies and breaching limits to ecosystems. Our review of public information on CPEC and interviews with senior officials offered new insights on the risks of CPEC. We found serious causes for concern as a result of inflexible approaches to planning without long-term data on water supply and demand, weaknesses in groundwater management, and a lack of representation of the poor in planning decisions.
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Vivid presentations and conferences: Recent presentations by our colleagues include:
- Stuart Evans presented on competitiveness impacts of carbon pricing and carbon leakage, readiness for carbon markets and how to manage market demand and supply under an ETS at the Emerging Carbon Market Mechanisms Workshop in Hanoi, Vietnam organised by the Asian Development Bank.
- John Ward was a speaker at the Carbon Forum North America 2017 in New York in the high-level plenary 'The World of Article 6 - Local Markets, Global Linkages’.
- Thomas Kansy spoke about global and regional carbon market developments at the International Modelling Conference 2017 in Seoul, South Korea organised by the Greenhouse Gas Inventory & Research Center of Korea.
Upcoming events include:
- Thomas Kansy will present at the Environmental Fiscal Reforms for Low-Carbon Growth workshop on 28-29 September in Colombia.
- He will also present on the international experience of carbon pricing instruments in electricity, fuels and industry in Brazil on 5-6 October.
- Stuart Evans will present on the implications of Brexit on the EU ETS and for UK climate policy at the Carbon Forward Conference on 26-28 September. The conference programme will also consider upcoming reforms to the EU ETS, how airlines affected by CORSIA can hedge their exposure, and what's next in line for regulation post-Paris Climate Change Agreement.
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