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Net Zero New Zealand report prompts parliamentary debate
GLOBE-NZ, a cross-party grouping of parliamentarians, commissioned Vivid Economics to develop pathways for the country to achieve net zero emissions in the second half of the century. Our pathways analysis - entitled Net Zero New Zealand - shows that even if the country succeeds in a major decarbonisation of its grid and transport sector, it will be unable to achieve a net zero emissions future without transforming its agricultural sector. Launched at a high profile event in the New Zealand parliament, our scenario analysis and technical annex, both available here, have provided compelling narratives on how pathways may be achieved and the critical policy choices the country faces in order to be consistent with a net zero emissions future. The report also generated significant impact including a special parliamentary debate, along with radio discussions, comment pieces in newspapers, and TV items.
Below you will find some of the other projects we have delivered in the past few months. For more information on these or our other work, please email us.
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Climate adaptation in developing countries: Vivid Economics worked with the Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR) to understand the current practice, challenges and opportunities associated with engaging the private sector in adaptation and climate resilience in low and middle income countries. The work provides a comprehensive assessment of the private sector adaptation work undertaken by the Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs) and shows how, from this base, there will be a need to significantly scale up future activity, especially to support private sector adaptation in infrastructure. It identifies a number of operational lessons from experiences to date, including the need for bespoke tools to address knowledge gaps holding back private sector adaptation, the important role that concessional finance can play and the exciting potential of intermediated financing. The report concludes with a series of recommendations for donors, the MDBs, the Climate Investment Funds (CIF) and host governments in supporting the further scale up of private sector adaptation. The work is available here and was discussed as part of the NDCi global blog here.
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The role of batteries in the energy system and impact on commodity demand to 2050: Vivid Economics, supported by Imperial College modellers, estimated the market size for batteries in major global markets. This analysis, conducted for a multi‐national company, identifies the major determinants of market size, and how this feeds through to demand for nickel, copper, cobalt and other minerals. The battery market analysis modelled the diffusion of lithium-based chemistries, newly emerging post-lithium solutions and other established storage technologies. The project incorporated the latest information on technology developments, public and private RD&D activities and market intelligence. Email us for more information on this project.
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Premium subsidies for disaster risk insurance in developing countries: DFID commissioned Vivid Economics, in partnership with Swenja Surminski and Callund Consulting, to assess the evidence for and against the provision of premium subsidies for disaster insurance schemes. Based on engagement with the insurance community, analysis of the existing literature, and actuarial modelling, we concluded that often mentioned risks around the provision of premium subsidies, such as moral hazard, can be effectively mitigated. Furthermore, premium subsidies are sometimes the only instrument which can sufficiently reduce premiums to allow budget constrained governments or low income households to purchase insurance. The report has been requested by and informed the wider disaster risk insurance community including ClimateWise, Germany’s KfW, major insurers and NGOs.
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Financing deforestation-free global supply chains: The Tropical Forest Alliance asked Vivid Economics to assess the investment opportunity in deforestation-free supply chains. Our paper focussed in particular on deforestation-free production in cattle, soy, palm oil and pulp & paper. We estimated the financing opportunity for deforestation-free investment in these supply chains will reach approximately US$200 billion annually by 2020. We recommended a range of actions from private and public actors necessary to drive and facilitate the shift to deforestation-free investment. A key component of the analysis was a Transactions Workshop which analysed specific investment opportunities, built coalitions to take transactions forward and aimed to create a replicable process for engaging mainstream financial actors.
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Economic growth in a low carbon world - how to reconcile growth and climate through energy productivity: Without a structural break in energy productivity, continued population and economic growth will drive a significant increase in energy demand globally. This research paper, developed by Vivid Economics for the Energy Transitions Commission, investigates the critical levers needed to achieve this break. The analysis charts how simultaneous radical improvements in energy productivity across the transport, industry and buildings sectors, driven both by continued technical progress and structural shifts in urban design and economic activities, could reduce global energy demand by 60 per cent compared to business as usual by 2050.
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