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2019 highlights from Copenhagen Consensus and Bjorn Lomborg
Where does our aid money do the most good?
 In international polls and on the world stage, developing countries are very clear about their priorities: improved healthcare and education, more and better jobs, less corruption, and solutions to nutritional challenges. Unfortunately, these areas are not necessarily where rich countries direct funds.
In his new column for Project Syndicate (available in six languages), Bjorn Lomborg asks how development funds can be used better. Cost-benefit analysis can play a vital role in shining a light on interventions and investments that achieve the most for every dollar spent. If we ignore economic efficiency, we risk failing to make needed progress against humanity’s greatest challenges.
  
The article was published by media outlets around the world, including Berlingske, (Denmark), Channel News Asia (Singapore), Arab News (Saudi Arabia), La Nacion (Costa Rica), The Daily Star (Lebanon), Times of Oman, New Times (Rwanda), My Republica (Nepal), New Europe (Belgium), Jornal de Negocios (Portugal) and Finmag (Czech Republic). |
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The best investment Bill Gates has ever made
In an essay for The Wall Street Journal, Bill Gates discusses the great success of global health initiatives the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation has sponsored. He writes:
"The Copenhagen Consensus Center is a think tank that uses sophisticated algorithms and the best available data to compare alternate poverty-fighting strategies. Their tools have allowed us to test an interesting hypothesis: Suppose that our foundation hadn’t invested in Gavi, the Global Fund and GPEI and had instead put that $10 billion into the S&P 500, promising to give the balance to developing countries 18 years later. As of last week, those countries would have received about $12 billion, adjusted for inflation, or $17 billion if we factor in reinvested dividends. (...)
By investing in global health institutions, however, we exceeded all of those returns: The $10 billion that we gave to help provide vaccines, drugs, bed nets and other supplies in developing countries created an estimated $200 billion in social and economic benefits."
Gates' article was widely cited in media around the world, including CNBC, BusinessInsider and BT (Denmark).
 In her article "Why women's and children's health is at risk around the world" for CNN, Melinda Gates also highlights this Copenhagen Consensus analysis. |
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Solutions shouldn't cost more than the problem
 Congresswoman Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez recently declared that “the world is gonna end in 12 years if we don't address climate change” and expressed exasperation that anyone would want to talk about the cost of global warming policies.
The idea that humanity will be doomed in 2030 is just silly – as social media was quick to point out. But really, the politician is just saying what many people believe after years of apocalyptic reporting. Lomborg argues in New York Post that if we look at the science and stop believing the end of the world is nigh, our decisions will be much smarter. |
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We are missing the forest for the trees on free trade
As the U.S. and China are locked in a major trade dispute, the mood has turned against freer trade around the world. The tragedy is that genuine, global free trade would have benefits that reach far beyond that continent worth trillions of dollars. By turning against free trade, we are denying the world’s poorest genuine opportunities to climb out of poverty, while cutting off great benefits for the rest of the world.
In an op-ed for The Hill, Lomborg argues that those in rich countries who focus on negative globalization stories such as blue-collar workers losing their jobs are missing the forest for the trees.
Free trade is undoubtedly good for the world’s poor, who would have new opportunities to thrive and prosper. But the benefits of trade also extend to wealthy consumers, workers, and even the planet. |
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Why don’t we spend much more on nutrition and education?
In an article about the future of development entitled "5 puzzles in the international economy", Homi Kharas of the influential public policy think tank The Brookings Institution is wondering why the economic evidence on the effectiveness of nutrition and education interventions does not translate into more spending on these global priorities.
Citing benefit-cost analyses from Copenhagen Consensus, Kharas points out that
"aid for nutrition and education continues to lag far behind what is needed to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. Why isn’t there a significant scale up of aid to education and nutrition, as happened with aid for health interventions?" |
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Climate cost headline catchy but false
How much did climate change cost in 2018? One major charity says the answer is $85 billion. That claim was repeated by many newspapers—just as it was designed to—yet it is nonsense. The report just listed the costs of ten weather events, without examining the science on the links between these events and climate change.
Lomborg argues in The Weekend Australian that it is alarming that a major charity not only disregards the scientific evidence while urging climate action but also ignores what the world’s poorest say they want. The United Nations’ vast global survey reveals that for people from the world’s poorest countries, climate change comes dead last in their concerns, well after education, health, jobs, transparent government, and food. |
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How (not) to save the world
 Germany's most prestigeous Sunday newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung conducted a feature interview with Bjorn Lomborg on "how to save the world". He discussed the smartest solutions to the biggest global challenges and also addressed the question of how to approach climate change and environmental problems best.
 Moreover, the Czech Republic's leading news magazine Tyden published a 4-page interview with Lomborg, in which he pointed out that feel-good solutions won't be effective in tackling climate change, and that global leaders need to prioritize the smartest policies that promise the biggest bang for the buck. |
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Sometimes all it takes to look green is creative accounting
 Because honest and deep emissions cuts are staggeringly hard to make, achieving carbon neutrality anytime soon is an empty ambition for almost everywhere.
But countries continue to make big promises and give a false sense of progress on combating global warming.
 Look at New Zealand, which promised in 2007 to become carbon neutral by 2020. Actually, its emissions will be 23% higher. Yet, fiddling the numbers, it claims success and now looks to become carbon neutral in 2050 — which won't happen either.
Read Bjorn Lomborg's new column for Project Syndicate six languages. The article was published by media outlets around the world, including Berlingske (Denmark), Die Presse (Austria), La Nacion (Costa Rica), The Daily Star (Lebanon), Times of Oman, New Times (Rwanda), Finmag (Czech Republic) and My Republica (Nepal). |
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The biggest bang for every buck
How should governments prioritize issues to derive the greatest social impact? For instance, should education budgets focus on primary, tertiary or skill-based education? Should nutrition initiatives spend more on micronutrients for pregnant women or therapeutic foods for children? Such questions are critical, and tricky, when a country’s resources are limited and its development needs aplenty.
The India Consensus project empowers policy makers in Indian states with information about how much more good they can achieve with every dollar or rupee.
A 4-page feature story in The TATA Trust's Horizons magazine looks at the project and its finding in depth:
The Andhra Pradesh impact research, for instance, shows that improving the teacher-pupil ratio in the state would return ₹5 worth of social and economic benefits on every rupee invested. On the other hand, computer-assisted learning — the highest priority solution that emerged — would yield a return of 74 for every rupee spent.
In Rajasthan, the findings were similarly enlightening. Improving private sector tuberculosis care would yield benefits worth ₹179 for each rupee invested. In agriculture, introducing e-mandis (electronic agricultural markets) would deliver a return of ₹65 on each rupee spent, whereas farm loan waivers would return less than a rupee. |
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Cost-effective approaches to save the environment
Is climate change the rapidly impending apocalypse it is often portrayed as in the media? On Uncommon Knowledge, Bjorn Lomborg breaks down what economic impact climate change will have on the global GDP in the next one hundred years, and argues that green energy R&D and a moderate carbon tax would have a great long-term impact on reducing emissions.
He also discusses the need for a rational, evidence-based approach to policy prioritization in other sectors of government, including trade, infrastructure and health.
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Climate hackers
 For years scientists have been quietly working on a last ditch solution to slow global warming: geo-engineering, or artificially hacking the climate.
In a new documentary for the Australian Broadcasting Corporation's flagship program Foreign Correspondent, Lomborg discusses the potentials of geoengineering and reasons why it is so difficult to replace cheap and reliable energy provided by fossil fuels with wind and solar energy:
“Most people are not content to only be able to charge their phones or have their TVs or indeed their operating theatres in hospitals running when the sun is shining.”
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Is a "Green New Deal" going to help the climate?
The United States controversially discusses the "Green New Deal", a set of proposed economic stimulus programs that aims to address climate change and economic inequality. While grandiose, the action plan falls on the wrong side of both science and economic reality. Just the cost of the climate part of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's proposal runs to $2.1 trillion a year, while curbing global warming by less than 0.3°F by the end of the century.
Lomborg discusses the shortcomings of the Green New Deal on the Ricochet Podcast (interview starts 15 minutes into the episode) and Chicago's Morning Answer. |
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Student protestors should demand better climate ideas
Around the world, thousands of children are striking for climate action. Spurred on by young Swedish activist Greta Thunberg, they want to convince adults to “panic”. But this global groundswell of energy ought to be redirected to achieve more for humanity and the planet.
 In USA Today, Lomborg argues that rather than doubling down on the failed approaches to tackle climate change, "school strikers should call out the grown-ups using silly rhetoric to promote fantastically costly and ineffective solutions and instead insist on smarter ones. And they should double down on their studies to be part of the generation that will find vaccines for malaria, tackle hunger, fight cancer, while also innovating green energy to make it so cheap it eventually undercuts fossil fuels and fixes climate change for good."
 The article was syndicated in many other countries and languages, including publications such as Die Welt (Germany), Svenska Dagbladet (Sweden), Milenio (Mexico), El Comercio (Peru), Los Tiempos (Bolivia), La Prensa (Nicaragua) and El Universo (Ecuador). |
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Why we all need to cool down about global warming
Decades of climate-change exaggeration in the West have produced frightened children, febrile headlines, and unrealistic political promises. The world needs a cooler approach that addresses climate change smartly without scaring us needlessly and that pays heed to the many other challenges facing the planet.
Read Bjorn Lomborg's new column for Project Syndicate six languages. The article was published by media outlets around the world, including Shanghai Daily (China), Berlingske (Denmark), Interest (New Zealand), The Daily Star (Lebanon), New Times (Rwanda) and Jornal de Negocios (Portugal). |
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Are more people dying from climate-related events?
Are more and more people dying as a result of climate change? Such claims from climate campaigners might make for good headlines, but they are wrong. In fact, over the past 100 years, climate-related deaths have decreased some 95% because our increased wealth and adaptive capacity have vastly outdone any negative impact from climate when it comes to human climate vulnerability.
On the FOX News prime time program Tucker Carlson Tonight, Lomborg explains why we shouldn't fall for climate hysteria and what smart solutions to climate change could look like. |
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The right way to deal with extreme weather
 In setting out a plan to make Manhattan better prepared for extreme weather, New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio is delivering a sorely needed message on climate change.
Usually when extreme weather like a hurricane hits, we hear the same old calls for drastic carbon cuts. Yet these are both ineffective and hopeless at helping victims of hurricanes.
In New York Post, Lomborg argues that adaptation actions, like building flood walls, grassy berms and removable storm barriers, mean we’re better prepared — both today and for whatever climate change may send our way. |
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Prioritize the prevention of domestic violence
The impact of domestic violence is vast, with costs for victims and society at large. New evidence for India Consensus points to additions that could be made to policies, by any government, to help reduce this cost and turn the tide on violence.
Two solutions studied - empowerment and education via self-help groups; and community mobilization - were both found to be highly cost effective. Besides the clear and important value of avoiding women pain, fear and stress — and, indeed, saving lives — this would also lead to greater economic output since a typical episode of domestic violence means a woman has to stop working for more than five days, as Lomborg explains in Hindustan Times. |
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TB treatment: an investment on the future
 New research undertaken by India Consensus squarely places TB treatment among the top investments that India can make in order to help achieve the UN’s Global Goals.
As Lomborg explains in Deccan Herald, there are two reasons why TB treatment ranks so high. Firstly, the costs of treatment are generally cheap, and the cure rate is near 90%. In other words, spending relatively little money today can save a life. Secondly and more importantly, because TB is a contagious disease, identifying and treating a patient today can reduce the number of onward infections. This means more lives saved, less health expenditure in the future, or both. Every rupee spent on TB prevention achieves more than Rs 100 of benefits. |
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A bright future for India's farmers
Research for the India Consensus project also shows that the introduction of more electronic market places for food and agri-commodities could be a phenomenal investment in the area of agriculture in India.
Instead of dealing only with local traders in the farmers’ market, a farmer can theoretically buy and sell with the entire country. This improves prices because farmers have more people to sell to, and avoids farmers getting taken advantage of by unscrupulous local traders, because they can see all the prices across the electronic market.
Lomborg writes in India's largest business newspaper, The Economic Times, that even with pessimistic assumptions, every rupee spent on such e-markets could yield 65 rupees worth of benefits to society. |
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No, renewables are not taking over the world
We’re constantly being told how renewables are close to taking over the world. We’re told they are so cheap they’ll undercut fossil fuels and reign supreme pretty soon. That would be nice. Unfortunately, it is also mostly an illusion. This short video shows why renewables are not likely to take over the world anytime soon. |
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The global development agenda needs an overhaul
The incoming US Ambassador to the United Nations has the opportunity to bring order to the confusion on international development by calling on all nations to prioritize the most powerful targets. When the UN set its development agenda in 2015, it ratified a completely unmanageable list of 169 targets, and it has become clear that there is only a fraction of the money needed to fund this wish-list.
In Boston Globe, Lomborg argues that America's new UN ambassador could lead the world by example and focus on the most cost-effective solutions, identified by a panel of Nobel laureate economists for Copenhagen Consensus. Focusing on the 19 most powerful targets could achieve the same as quadrupling global aid spending.
Lomborg published a similar article in which he argued for prioritization of the Global Goals in newspapers across Latin America, including Milenio (Mexico), El Comercio (Peru), La Prensa (Nicaragua) and El Universo (Ecuador).
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The World Bank needs to change course
 The World Bank does a lot of important and effective work, especially in health and education, but its climate policies are poorly considered. The Bank’s new president David Malpass should refocus the institution on its core mission of eradicating poverty – including the energy poverty that wrecks so many lives.
  
 Read Bjorn Lomborg's new column for Project Syndicate six languages. The article was published by global media outlets including The Australian, El Tiempo (Colombia), Channel News Asia (Singapore), La Nacion (Costa Rica), The Daily Star (Lebanon), My Republica (Nepal), New Times (Rwanda) and Jornal de Negocios (Portugal). |
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Finding the best policies for Ghana's future
During a recent visit to Ghana, Bjorn Lomborg met the team from the country's leading newspaper The Daily Graphic to discuss the Copenhagen Consensus Center's newest major project, Ghana Priorities.
 Lomborg underscored the need for Ghana to change the national conversation to push for smart policies for accelerated growth.
Over the next year - in cooperation with politicians, academics and economists - Ghana Priorities will analyze the most impactful policies for the country’s well-being.
Findings of the project will be shared with the public through communication channels including articles in The Daily Graphic and interviews with the popular Citi FM radio station, where Lomborg appeared on the show of prominent media personality Bernard Avle.
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Engaging Ghana's decision-makers about prioritization
While in Accra, Lomborg held a well attended lecture at City Hall for academics and policy advisors as well as international donors.
During the week-long visit he discussed Ghana Priorities with key stakeholders, most notably the Minister for Finance Ken Ofori-Atta (pictured above), the Minister for Planning George Gyan-Baffour and the former Ministers for Finance Kwesi Botchwey (pictured below) and Seth Terkper, all of whom endorsed a more data-driven policy discussion and gave the project their support.
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The solution to climate change is innovation
In a feature article for Denmark's newspaper of record, Jyllands-Posten, Bjorn Lomborg analyzes why the world still fails to make significant carbon cuts despite all the grandiose rhetoric we hear from political leaders.
Instead of making more on bombastic promises, leaders should focus on comparatively modest investments into green energy R&D. By improving today’s technologies rather than subsidizing inefficient turbines and solar panels, and by exploring fusion, fission, water splitting, and more technologies, we might be able to solve climate change once and for all. |
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Prioritizing the Bangladeshi one-stop rural shop
More than 80 countries have introduced one-stop shops—one-door or single-window service delivery outlets, community or citizen information and service centres, e-government web portals—to reduce corruption by simplifying public service delivery processes and making them citizen-friendly.
New research evidence for Bangladesh Priorities by the Copenhagen Consensus and BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD) indicates that Bangladesh could also benefit from enhancing its rural service centers.
Hasanuzzaman from Copenhagen Consensus points out in The Daily Star that for each and every taka spent, Union Digital Centres that serve rural citizens are generating a double return to society through the delivery of three key services: online birth registration, exam registration and the social safety net program.
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Examining the latest false alarm on climate
You’ve probably seen the latest alarming headlines: Rising sea levels from climate change could flood 187 million people out of their homes. Don’t believe it. That figure is unrealistic—and it isn’t even new.
The authors of a new study plucked it from a paper published in 2011, which also explained that humans “adapt proactively,” and “such adaptation can greatly reduce the possible impacts.” That means “the problem of environmental refugees almost disappears.”
Realistic assumptions reduce the number to less than 1/600th of the figure in those headlines, as Lomborg explains in Wall Street Journal. |
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The world is in a better shape than ever
Bjorn Lomborg recently joined Steve Forbes on his brand new podcast "What's Ahead".
During the half hour-long conversation, he presented two key messages:
(1) Despite the nonstop stream of depressing news, the world is actually getting to be a better place—cleaner, more prosperous, less violent.
(2) By pursuing commonsensical, cost-effective programs to battle the troubles still plaguing our planet, we can achieve a level of prosperity and quality of life for all that would have been deemed utterly unattainable only a few years ago. |
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Climate hyperbole isn't helpful
The planet faces not just climate change but nothing short of a ‘climate emergency’. That’s according to influential left-wing British newspaper The Guardian which has just declared it will change its language from now on, to talk in terms of a “climate emergency”, “climate crisis” and “climate breakdown.”
Climate change is real, manmade and we need to tackle it. But here’s the problem with the change in language. The politicians and media are going far beyond the science, and by setting out to scare us, they risk making an entire generation over-worried and worse off — while tackling climate change badly.
Read Bjorn Lomborg's latest column for New York Post. |
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It’s cheaper to talk than to cut emissions
Environmental protesters and politicians around the world are calling for countries to become carbon neutral by 2050, if not sooner. These proposals get a lot of attention, but they would incur far higher costs than almost any electorate is willing to pay.
Read Bjorn Lomborg's new column for Project Syndicate six languages. The article was published by media outlets around the world, including The Australian, Channel News Asia (Singapore), La Nacion (Costa Rica), The Reporter (Ethiopia), The Daily Star (Lebanon), My Republica (Nepal), Jornal de negocios (Portugal), Finmag (Czech Republic), Telegrafi (Albania), and Interest (New Zealand). |
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Preventing the spread of HIV/AIDS
 The prognosis for people living with HIV/AIDS has been transformed through anti-retroviral therapy (ART). This is the use of medicines to treat HIV infection, and it is recommended for everyone who has HIV. ART helps people with HIV live longer, healthier lives and reduces the risk of transmission to others.
New analysis undertaken by India Consensus has established that further investment in preventing the spread of HIV/AIDS through ART is one of the twelve best investments that India can make to speed its achievement of the Global Goals.
As Lomborg writes in Deccan Herald, preventing a case of HIV/AIDS, whether through condom provision, community mobilization, counselling, or treating those living with HIV/AIDS at the earliest opportunity, can transform lives and save untold heartache. |
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Rich countries are breaking their innovation promise
 On the sidelines of the 2015 Paris climate summit, 20 world leaders made a promise to double green energy research and development by 2020. Today, they are on course to break that promise. IEA data shows rich OECD countries are spending just 0.03% of GDP on low-carbon energy R&D – a percentage that has not changed since the vow was made.
In articles for British magazine The Spectator and Australia's largest circulating newspaper Herald Sun, Bjorn Lomborg argues that the promise to fund this research should be more than just empty words, as more innovation is necessary to find cheaper and better alternatives to fossil fuels. |
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Smart priorities for the new government’s first budget
Since 2015, Copenhagen Consensus and BRAC have collaborated on Bangladesh Priorities to create a bridge between policy and research. This is driven by the belief that, with limited resources and time, it is crucial that decisions are informed by what will do the most good for each taka spent.
New research for Bangladesh Priorities has identified four key priorities for the upcoming budget, which Bjorn Lomborg discusses in the country's largest English-language paper The Daily Star. Each is critical to promoting good governance, economic growth and public welfare, and we commend the Planning Minister for his commitment to scaling up these priorities.
Why GDP still matters
New Zealand is being lauded for introducing the world’s first Wellbeing Budget, which aims to shift the focus from GDP toward the “wellbeing of people.” This sounds great. But GDP is actually closely connected to many of the crucial indicators making life better: education, child survival, nutrition, health, life expectancy, and even environment.
The focus on wellbeing may have the best of intentions. But if GDP does not increase, the government will have less money for its grand schemes. And compared to what it could have had, the country will have less overall wellbeing, worse environmental performance, and weaker human capital.
 
Read Bjorn Lomborg's new column for Project Syndicate in five languages. The article was published by media outlets around the world, including Mail & Guardian (South Africa), Shanghai Daily (China), Interest (New Zealand), Berlingske (Denmark), Börse Online (Germany), La Nacion (Costa Rica) and The Daily Star (Lebanon). |
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Sorry, banning plastic bags won’t save our planet
An increasing number of countries and local authorities are banning single-use plastics such as shopping bags. Bjorn Lomborg argues in Canada's newspaper of record, The Globe and Mail, that we need to be honest about how much consumers can achieve.
 As with other environmental issues, instead of tackling the big picture problems to actually reduce the plastic load going into oceans, we focus on relatively minor changes involving consumers.
We also need to consider the wider environmental impact of our bag choices. A 2018 study by the Danish Ministry of Environment and Food looked not just at plastic waste, but also at climate change damage, ozone depletion, human toxicity, and other indicators. It found you must reuse an organic cotton shopping bag 20,000 times before it will have less environmental damage than a plastic bag.
Lomborg also discussed the topic on US radio. |
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The trade war’s biggest losers: poor people
The trade war between the USA and China has prompted many commentators to focus on the economic pain that will be felt by the two sides: hitting US consumers in the pocket, and causing pain for Chinese exporters. But there’s a far bigger concern that extends globally, which is that decision-makers in almost every nation have shifted so sharply against the most powerful development tool that has ever been discovered: free trade.
A completed Doha agreement would have made the world $11 trillion richer each and every year by 2030 according to research for Copenhagen Consensus. The tragedy is that the stubbornness from both sides—and today’s entrenched mood against free trade—means that trillions of dollars of potential growth are effectively thrown away.
Read Bjorn Lomborg's article in New York Daily News (available here for readers from the EU). |
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The costs and benefits of attacking climate change
On the renowned EconTalk podcast, Bjorn Lomborg talks about the costs and benefits of attacking climate change. He argues that we should always be aware of tradeoffs and effectiveness when assessing policies to reduce global warming, and advocates for realistic solutions that consider the potential to improve human life in other ways. In addition to funding the innovation needed to move away from fossil fuels, Lomborg argues that geo-engineering and adaptation may be the most effective ways to cope with climate change. |
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Energy solution hinges on better technology
What will be the solution to climate change? It would be very nice to be able to point confidently to a single technology such as wind turbines or solar panels. Many people argue we just need to build more of their favoured technology to achieve a so-called “energy transition” from fossil fuels to renewables. Unfortunately, as one of the world’s leading energy researchers, Vaclav Smil, has pointed out: “The great hope for a quick and sweeping transition to renewable energy is wishful thinking.”
In a two-page feature essay for The Weekend Australian, Bjorn Lomborg comprehensively analyzes why the global energy transition is so incredibly difficult despite stark warnings of a warming world, making the case for much higher investments into green R&D.
 Lomborg discussed his essay on The Chris Smith Show on 2GB Radio, and Australia's best known radio talk show host Alan Jones called it an "outstanding piece". |
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The UK is about to spend £1 trillion on a pointless policy
The UK is, reportedly, already resorting to the use of "creative accounting" as it attempts to meet its current obligation of reducing emissions by 80 per cent by 2050. However, that hasn't stopped the government from proclaiming an even bolder promise: net zero. While having almost no impact on global temperatures, the cost of this target would be immense at up to £374 billion annually. That’s more than the UK currently spends on health, education, police, courts, defence, environment, housing, recreation and culture.
Read Bjorn Lomborg's article for The Telegraph (here without paywall), from which the BBC quoted in their reporting on Theresa May's announcement. |
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Why India must expand its immunization coverage
Of all of the things that a government can do to influence the lives of citizens, immunization is one of the most effective, cost-efficient investments. And a new, non-partisan report by India Consensus shows that expanding India’s immunization program would be a phenomenal investment.
For example, delivering six vaccinations (tuberculosis, diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis, measles and polio) can deliver one year of healthy life for less than $10. In terms of what this means for society, every dollar spent achieves benefits worth some $50.
Lomborg argues in Hindustan Times that it is rare in public policy to find simple, cheap interventions that have such compelling and phenomenal returns. Expansion of immunization over coming decades can help (and save) many lives. |
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Policy directors validate Ghana Priorities Project
Policy directors drawn from selected ministries, departments and agencies recently attended a validation workshop on the Ghana Priorities Project, a data-driven approach to the prioritization of policy interventions.
Through academic research, stakeholder engagement and a targeted outreach strategy to determine the best investments, the project seeks to help Ghana accelerate the achievement of the Ghana Development Agenda (GDA) and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), as the country's leading newspaper The Daily Graphic reports. |
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Empowering rural courts
Increasing access to justice at the grassroot level can directly protect human rights of the rural poor. It is estimated that nearly 4 billion poor around the world cannot access the protection of the law and justice system. In Bangladesh, 31 million people, mostly belonging to rural areas, experience legal problems every year.
Research for Bangladesh Priorities shows that when village courts are empowered as a quasi-formal justice system to deal with more complicated and higher value cases, it could benefit Bangladesh’s economy tremendously. Reducing backlog and making it more convenient for rural citizens to access justice, without having to travel to district courts, would generate nearly Tk 19 of benefits for each taka spent.
Read the article by Lomborg and Bangladesh Priorities Outreach Manager Hasanuzzaman in The Daily Star. |
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The nutrition challenge
A new report from the United Nations warns that the number of hungry people worldwide increased for a third consecutive year in 2018, and now exceeds 820 million. And some two billion people – over one-quarter of the world’s population – lack regular access to safe, nutritious, and sufficient food.
These quiet deaths and silent suffering don’t seize the world’s attention like past famines did. But they should. Additional investments in early childhood nutrition are crucial, and should be a high priority for donor and recipient governments, multilateral development organizations, and philanthropic foundations. Every dollar spent on child nutrition will create $45 of benefits for society, making it an extremely valuable investment.
 Read Bjorn Lomborg's new column for Project Syndicate in five languages. The article was published by media outlets around the world, including Shanghai Daily (China, print), Jakarta Post (Indonesia, print), Jordan Times, La Nacion (Costa Rica), My Republica (Nepal), Khaleej Times (UAE) and The Daily Star (Lebanon). |
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Climate change as a wedge issue in the USA
 A year ahead of the US presidential election, exaggeration about global warming is greater than ever. While some politicians continue (incorrectly) to insist it’s made up, far more insist (also incorrectly) that we face an imminent climate crisis threatening civilization.
Using climate to energize the base may make short-term political sense, but adding to polarization on the topic just makes it impossible to engage in sensible policy discussion.
In New York Post, Lomborg argues that we can only reclaim the pragmatic center of the debate if we stop accepting relentless climate exaggerations and focus on smart and cost-conscious solutions. |
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Don't let climate scientists spoil your summer BBQ
British scientists recently proposed to replace meat with vegetarian alternatives, using the catchy title "How much is your summer BBQ damaging the environment?"
What they failed to communicate is the reality that in an industrial world setting going entirely vegetarian for the rest of your life means you reduce your emissions by about 2% only.
Writing for USA Today, Lomborg points out that going vegetarian can help the climate a little bit, but it's both an unrealistic and inefficient policy to push on people across the world. We should focus on research to develop cleaner, maybe artificial, meat and cheaper clean energy. And while we do so, we can have our summer barbecues without being told they destroy the planet. |
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Voters don't want extreme climate policies
Green activists commonly make the claim that the electorate wants strong climate action. But again and again, voters reject expensive climate policies, as recently seen in Australia, the US, Brazil and many other places.
In Britain's largest broadsheet newspaper The Telegraph (here without paywall), Lomborg writes that rather than wishing for an electorate that shares the views of the elite, global warming campaigners need to stop and listen. |
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How to spend $162bn to fix climate – and everything else
This year, the world will spend $162 billion subsidizing renewable energy. Unfortunately, this massive investment won't have any measurable impact on temperatures by the end of the century.
We could use the same amount of money instead to fund the green innovation needed for renewables to eventually outcompete fossil fuels, and would still have enough money left to fund solutions to urgent global problems such as malnutrition and hunger, infectious diseases, access to family planning, and loss of biodiversity.
In a new essay for The Australian, Lomborg writes:
The choice really is clear. Do we want to be remembered in the future for being the generation that overreacted and spent a fortune feeling good about ourselves but doing very little, subsidising inefficient solar panels and promising slight carbon cuts — or do we want to be remembered for fundamentally helping to fix both climate and all the other challenges facing the world? |
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A case for nutrition counselling
 A new study for India Consensus suggests that nutrition and health counselling is one of the best possible investments in India.
As a behavioural change intervention, nutrition and health counselling is relatively low cost for every person that is reached. While this program does not provide food, it instead provides information to the mother, making it more likely that the child will receive more and better food. And that in turn leads to lifelong benefits, generating returns to society worth ₹61 in Andhra Pradesh and ₹43 in Rajasthan for every rupee spent.
Together with Shireen Vakil of The TATA Trusts, Lomborg points out the enormous potentials of nutrition counselling in South India's leading newspaper, The Hindu. |
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Spending on agriculture for bigger, better gains
 There are many different and sometimes competing visions of how best to reduce rural poverty and boost farmer income in India.
A new analysis for India Consensus highlights agricultural R&D and certified seed production and distribution as two policies that everyone should be able to support. With the right settings in place including good irrigation, every rupee spent on these solutions can generate social returns of 22 rupees and 15 rupees respectively, making them amazing investments.
Read Lomborg's article in Deccan Herald. |
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Prioritising e-government procurement for Bangladesh
Transparency, fair competition and accountability are three defining features of an efficient public procurement system. Until 2011, the Bangladesh procurement process was paper-based and plagued by corruption and malpractices. A new e-Government Procurement (e-GP) system, implemented in 2011, has largely eliminated such mismanagement. At present, e-GP is being used by 50 percent of procuring agencies and procuring entities. The time required from tender opening to contract awarding declined from 51 days in 2012 to 29 days in 2015, which has significantly reduced the cost of doing business.
New research evidence for Bangladesh Priorities by Copenhagen Consensus and the BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD), BRAC University, indicates that for each and every taka spent towards scaling up e-GP, benefits worth Tk 755 can be generated. Such returns are anticipated as a result of increased competition and transparency in public procurement.
Read the article by Lomborg and Bangladesh Priorities Outreach Manager Hasanuzzaman in The Daily Star.
Die another day
Most people on the planet wake up each day thinking that things are getting worse. It is little wonder, given what they routinely read in the newspaper or see on television. But this gloomy mood is a problem, because it feeds into scare stories about how climate change will end in Armageddon.
The fact is that the world is mostly getting better. Average global life expectancy has more than doubled since 1900. Health inequality has declined massively. People are more literate, child labor is decreasing, and we are living in one of the most peaceful times in history. We need to solve climate change, but we also need to make sure that the cure isn’t more painful than the disease.
Read Bjorn Lomborg's new column for Project Syndicate in five languages. The article was published by media outlets around the world, including The Globe and Mail (Canada), The Australian, Die Presse (Austria), New Europe (Belgium), Jakarta Post (Indonesia, print), Jordan Times and My Republica (Nepal). |
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Vegetarianism as climate virtue signaling
“Eat less meat” is the typical headline for a new United Nations special report on climate change. The report correctly points to the need to improve global food systems, but pundits are fixating on the supposed need for people in rich countries to radically change their dining habits. This is an ineffective and unachievable policy response.
As Lomborg argues in Wall Street Journal, rather than false hopes about dietary change, the focus should be on improving agricultural practices. First, organics are bad for sustainability. Making U.S. agricultural production entirely organic would require converting an area larger than California and Texas into farmland. Second, agricultural yields must increase. A new Green Revolution is needed to make agriculture even more efficient. |
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Family planning programs for India
India is in the midst of a major demographic transition, with hundreds of millions of people reaching working age. As the nation’s population continues to grow at a fast rate, family planning continues to be a priority. Now, new research for India Consensus presented by Bjorn Lomborg and the TATA Trust's Shireen Vakil in Deccan Herald reveals that focusing resources in this area is one of the most effective uses of funds.
 The annual cost per person across the whole population is ₹36 ($0.50), because only 12% of women in the reproductive age has an unmet need for contraception. The benefits, though, can be very large. There are three ways that family planning helps society: it has a 'demographic dividend', it reduces infant mortality, and it reduces maternal mortality. Together, every rupee spent on family planning would create benefits to society worth some 32 rupees. |
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Climate policies need to be feasible for emerging economies
Rich countries subsidize renewable energy to the tune of $162 billion every year, yet the effect on global warming is virtually non-existent. More importantly, climate policy can only be successful if China, India, Brazil and other developing nations can afford cutting emissions, too. Even if all the rich countries in the world completely turned off carbon dioxide emissions, the difference by the end of the century would be about 0.4 degrees Celsius.
On Sky News Australia, Bjorn Lomborg argues that because cheap and reliable energy offers a way out of poverty, emerging economies won't implement similar policies as the West which are both expensive and ineffective. Only if we can innovate the price of green energy below fossil fuels, we will be able to solve climate change. |
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No Greta, we are not 'evil'
Speaking at the UN, 16-year-old Swedish activist Greta Thunberg said that if humanity really understands the science of climate change and still fails to act, we’re “evil.” Lomborg responds in Canada's newspaper of record, The Globe and Mail, that we don’t emit CO2 with malign intent. Indeed, it is a byproduct of giving humanity access to unprecedented amounts of energy which has allowed billions to escape poverty.
Ms. Thunberg tells us that if we don’t cut off fossil fuels by 2028, the young generation will never forgive us. This, however, is reflective of a blinkered first-world view. When the United Nations asked 10 million people around the world what they prioritize, they highlighted five issues: health, education, jobs, corruption and nutrition. Climate came last of 16 choices.
The article was also published in many other languages, including German (BILD), Danish (Jyllands-Posten) and Spanish (e.g. Milenio).
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How climate policies hurt the poor
A new study suggests that the massive cost of the Paris climate agreement will lead to an increase in poverty of around 4%. And the authors issue a stark warning that “stringent mitigation plans may slow down poverty reduction in developing countries.”
 In his new column for Project Syndicate (available in four languages and syndicated with newspapers around the world), Lomborg argues that the world is in great danger of spending scarce resources on climate policies that hurt rather than help its poorest people. Governments should instead focus on growth-enhancing measures such as trade liberalization, which provide a pathway to increased welfare and greater equality. |
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UK Aid to spend £600 million on family planning
"Family planning is one of the best investments in development. According to the Copenhagen Consensus, family planning is among the most cost-effective interventions - long-term benefits accrue from avoiding unintended pregnancies and unsafe abortions, and averting infant and maternal deaths. Every $1 invested in meeting the unmet need for contraceptives in the long-term can yield up to $120 in accrued annual benefits."
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Affordable solutions are better than exaggerations
We are constantly told scare stories about climate change, even though the evidence does not support the claims. What's behind the overblown rhetoric? Nearly three decades of policy failure. In fact, since climate talks began in 1992, the world has emitted as much carbon dioxide from fossil fuels as all of humanity did before that from the beginning of time.
We need to change the script: instead of scaring people into accepting expensive policies that have failed for decades, we should focus on innovating green technologies so they eventually outcompete fossil fuels.
 Lomborg's article was published in newspapers around the world, including China Daily, The Herald Sun (Australia), Børsen (Denmark), Il Foglio (Italy), Svenska Dagbladet (Sweden), Milenio (Mexico), Listin Diario (Dominican Republic) and Los Tiempos (Bolivia). |
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Ending poverty will benefit the environment, too
In an interview with South China Morning Post, Bjorn Lomborg argues that the best way to make people resilient against extreme weather is helping them escape poverty:
“Back in the 1920s, about half a million died from climate-related problems per year, but since then, it’s declined to 20,000 per year. It’s not because disasters have become less frequent, it’s simply because by becoming rich, we are not nearly as affected by them.”
And helping developing nations to overcome poverty with the help of plentiful, reliable energy also has positive side effects for the environment:
 “As we become rich, we’ll be able to clean up the air. Likewise, improvements in farming methods mean that we could produce far more food on less land, and can leave more land for nature – no longer do we need to cut down rainforest in Brazil to make way for pastures.” |
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Presidential candidates should stick to facts on Syria
Is global warming to blame for the Syrian war? Despite better knowledge, Democratic presidential candidates Pete Buttigieg, Beto O'Rourke and Bernie Sanders promote the idea of climate wars because superficially, it’s a compelling message — and a way to link to one of Americans’ greatest fears.
If we think about it, though, it’s an utterly ridiculous — even offensive — conceit that the best way rich Americans could help people in Syria is by cutting carbon emissions. We need to fix man-made climate change by ensuring that innovation can drive down the cost of low-carbon energy alternatives. But linking rising temperatures to every single challenge facing humanity just distracts from what we really need to focus on, as Lomborg argues in USA Today. |
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What politicians get wrong about hurricanes and climate
As Hurricane Dorian made landfall in the Bahamas and the US East Coast, global-warming activists, newspaper columnists, TV commentators and politicians drew links between climate change and hurricanes. Lomborg demonstrates in New York Post that their claims aren't supported by the facts, and they divert our attention from smart policies to ineffective ones.
No wonder researchers who study extreme weather and climate change warn that overselling the link risks eroding “scientific credibility” and distracting from the things we need to do to be better prepared for extreme weather. |
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Arguing for sensible climate solutions on US television
Bjorn Lomborg recently visited New York City to attend events related to the UN General Assembly such as Gates Goalkeepers. During his time in the Big Apple, he was booked by several of the country's most prominent talk shows to discuss climate policy, such as Tucker Carlson Tonight (interview starts at the 6:35 minute mark), Varney & Co and Making Money. |
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A climate of burning money
World leaders just met in New York for a climate summit that did little more than add to the hysteria drowning out any sober talk on climate policy. Enough is enough. We must confront climate change, but hyperbole and bluster do the planet no favours.
 Lomborg writes in The Australian that this was the time we should have had a sensible discussion on cost-effective ways to reduce the worst of climate change’s damages. But sadly, growth policies, adaptation, green R&D and an optimal CO2 tax are not what we've heard from the climate summit in New York.
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Digitize land records to fight corruption in Bangladesh
The government of Bangladesh is aiming for a complete digitization of its land record management system by 2020, following recommendations by the Bangladesh Priorities panel of eminent economists that ranked land records digitisation as a top priority for the country. This is because electronic records can make transfers simpler, reduce corruption and promote good governance in the economic sectors.
New research evidence from Copenhagen Consensus and BRAC shows that at present, there is still no positive return from e-Mutation investment due to the current low outreach. Lomborg and Hasanuzzaman write in BDNews24 that if e-Mutation is scaled up nationwide, the evidence suggests a return of Tk 6 for each taka spent. Adding the spill-over effects toward economic growth suggests a phenomenal return of Tk 619 of benefits for every taka spent. |
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Interviews with Germany's leading newspapers
 
Following a presentation to members of the German Parliament, Bjorn Lomborg talked to many of the country's top newspapers about smart solutions to climate change and other global problems. These interviews were published e.g. in Germany's largest-circulating newspaper BILD, the largest business paper Handelsblatt, one of the largest broadsheet papers in the country, Die Welt, and Berliner Zeitung.
Why family planning is a smart investment
The United Kingdom recently announced that it will spend £600 million ($779 million) to provide 20 million more women and girls in the developing world with access to family planning. Their decision – based on research by the Copenhagen Consensus Center that shows family planning is one of the smartest possible development investments – is a vitally important one.
Achieving universal access to contraception would save and improve millions of lives, and put societies on a faster track to shared prosperity. Each year we would see 640,000 fewer newborn deaths, 150,000 fewer maternal deaths, and 600,000 fewer children losing their mothers. With so much at stake, the world should be devoting far more attention and resources to this goal.
Lomborg's new column for Project Syndicate (available in five languages) was published by newspapers around the globe, including The Australian, Shanghai Daily (China), Irish Examiner, Berlingske (Denmark), My Republica (Nepal), Jordan Times, Telegrafi (Albania) and Acento (Dominican Republic). |
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Climate activists are focused on the wrong solutions
As it is becoming obvious that political responses to global warming such as the Paris treaty are not working, environmentalists are urging us to consider the climate impact of our personal actions. Don’t eat meat, don’t drive a gasoline-powered car and don’t fly, they say. But these individual actions won’t make a substantial difference to our planet, and such demands divert attention away from the solutions that are needed.
Lomborg argues in New York Post that the solution to climate change cannot be found in personal changes in the homes of the middle classes of rich countries. Instead, we need to focus on technological solutions that will bring forward the day when green-energy alternatives are cheaper and more attractive than fossil fuels not just for the elite but for the entire world. |
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Finding the best policies for Ghana
We are helping set priorities for Ghana. Recently, 25 teams of economists presented the initial findings in Accra to almost three hundred sector experts from across the country — in fields such as health, education, gender, environment, poverty, agriculture, and infrastructure. The project essentially seeks to find out where each cedi (or dollar) spent can yield the greatest economic, social and environmental benefits.
The project has full support from the agency advising the president. The Director General of the National Development Planning Commission, Dr Mensah-Abrampa, is excited to make this "an ongoing and continual process." He added: "So if we get new resources coming into the national budget, we will know where exactly to put these resources so we can make the most gains."
Over the coming months, researchers from Ghana and abroad will assess the costs and benefits of more than 80 policy proposals, which will be presented to an Eminent Panel that includes some of Ghana’s most accomplished economists, the Finance Minister, the Minister of Planning and a Nobel Laureate in May 2020.
The project is receiving great interest from local media, with many of Ghana’s leading newspapers such as Daily Graphic, Daily Guide, Ghana Business News and News Ghana as well as multiple TV channels reporting. |
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Help people get rich to defuse the 'population bomb'
During a recent visit to New York City, Bjorn Lomborg was interviewed by Stuart Varney on the Fox Business Channel. He argued that exaggerations about the consequences of global warming are leading to poor policy proposals such as the Green New Deal, and explained that the answer to global population growth is contraception and lifting people in the developing world out of poverty. |
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The limits of 'leapfrogging'
Many western donors love the idea that instead of dirty, coal-fired power-plants, poor nations should ‘leapfrog’ straight to cleaner energy sources such as off-grid solar technology. But many cases around the developing world show that solar panels are mostly useless for tackling the main power challenges of the world’s poor.
Three billion people continue to suffer from the dangerous effects of indoor air pollution, burning dirty fuels like wood and dung to cook and keep warm. Solar panels don’t solve that problem because they are too weak to power clean stoves and heaters. Nor can off-grid solar panels power machinery for agriculture or factories that create jobs and pathways out of poverty.
Lomborg writes for Forbes and the two Australian newspapers Daily Telegraph and Herald Sun (print) that telling the world’s poor to live with unreliable, expensive, weak power is an insult.
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Analyzing costs and benefits of aid can be "mind-opening"
The renowned British publication The Economist published a full-page story on the Copenhagen Consensus Center's latest report for the African Academy of Sciences. The report helps identify African 'best buys' — where extra resources can do the most to promote African health, environment, and prosperity.
Yes, "cost-benefit analyses offend against the notion that life is priceless", but the Economist argues that policymakers shouldn't flinch at this "essential step in the war against poverty and disease: putting a dollar value on human life. Without one, it is impossible to compare efforts to vanquish HIV, malaria or diarrhea with other outlays, such as building railways, electrifying villages, conserving mangroves or educating preschoolers."
Indeed, economic analyses in development can be "mind-opening":
 "Costing comes not just with costs, but also with benefits. It allows governments to compare policies that affect mortality with others that affect prosperity. Priorities can then be set on a sounder basis than gut instinct, sentimental appeal or the political clout of the people hurt or helped. That matters because some good causes are not nearly as good as others." |
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Humans can survive underwater
The latest alarming story about climate change is that huge swaths of densely inhabited land will be underwater by 2050. New York Times tells us that South Vietnam will “all but disappear” because it will be “underwater at high tide”. The paper says, “more than 20 million people in Vietnam, almost one-quarter of the population, live on land that will be inundated.”
Turns out most of South Vietnam is already below the high tide line, but its 20 million inhabitants live fine because of dikes, just like much of Holland or downtown London. The impact of extra sea level rise to 2050 will put almost no extra land at risk. Humanity will, of course, continue to adapt to rising sea levels with infrastructure that provides flood protection, as we have done for centuries.
Such alarming media stories scare people unnecessarily and push policymakers toward excessively expensive measures to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions. The real solution is to lift the world’s poorest out of poverty and protect them with simple infrastructure.
Lomborg's new column for Project Syndicate (available in five languages) was published by newspapers around the globe, including The Australian, CafeF (Vietnam), Prodavinci (Venezuela), My Republica (Nepal), Jordan Times and Sunday Times (Sri Lanka). |
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We are throwing money at the wrong climate solutions
During a recent visit with the Dallas Morning News' editorial board, Bjorn Lomborg urged policymakers to spend money on countering climate change more effectively. Rather than spending on feel-good green projects or urging people to make personal sacrifices such as giving up meat, leaders should approach climate solutions unemotionally and invest in the ideas that will do the most good for the most people.
He lists four initiatives that will be key to tackling climate change: (1) a well-designed and globally coordinated carbon tax, (2) a dramatic increase in investment in research and development into green energy, so these technologies can eventually outcompete fossil fuels and reduce emissions without stifling economic activity, (3) better adaptation and (4) the exploration of geo-engineering as an "insurance policy".
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Talk is cheap, but climate policies remain expensive
Climate change is clearly an important global issue, but we are tackling it very badly and our overwhelming focus on reducing carbon emissions also distracts us from many of the world's most pressing problems. What makes it so hard to cut emissions is that CO2 is a byproduct of prosperous economies, and replacing cheap fossil fuels with today's mostly expensive and unreliable green alternatives remains incredibly expensive. An analysis for the government of New Zealand recently showed that achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 would cost the nation 16% of GDP.
In an interview with CNBC, Bjorn Lomborg argues that it's easy for politicians to make big promises for political applause now, but as the consequences of expensive climate policies become apparent, opposition will be strong, as we have seen in France and other countries. Instead of the grand rhetoric, policy-makers need to focus on innovating the next generations of green technologies that will make them feasible and affordable for everyone.
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Denmark's new climate policy: 0.0001°C for $120 billion
The Danish government has recently increased its climate promises: instead of cutting 40% in 2030, it will now cut 70%. It will do little, but cost a lot. Even if the target will be achieved, the entire extra Danish CO₂ cuts from 2020-2050 will reduce the global temperature rise by just one ten-thousands of a degree Celsius by the end of the century. The price tag is at least $120 billion (DKK800bn) extra. Each dollar spent will avoid less than 3¢ of climate damage.
Read Lomborg's analysis in Berlingske (in Danish). |
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