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#Foreword
I4CE has spent a year meeting the teams of the main candidates to the French presidential election to encourage them to prepare their climate program. In particular, we have asked them to unveil their "climate budget", i.e. to explain how they intend to finance the fight against climate change. While the war in Ukraine forces us to accelerate investments to get out of fossil fuels and decarbonize the economy, the I4CE team has analysed the programs of the main candidates. Are they ready?
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The good news is that, if the climate is absent from the presidential debate, it is not absent from the candidates' programs. However, not all candidates have the same level of preparation, their proposals are sometimes vague and we still too often read that we need to invest massively here or there, without indication of who will pay and how much. However, the five-year period will begin with two crucial milestones for the climate: an energy and climate programming law and a public finance programming law.
To prepare for these milestones, the next President will be able to rely on the - sometimes surprising - consensuses between the candidates: multi-year climate budget programming, gradual end to fossil fuel subsidies, transparency on the use of ecological tax revenues, support for low-income households, financing of adaptation, key role of local authorities... These consensuses, some of which are the legacy of the French yellow vest crisis, all are reform agendas for the new five-year term. |
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#Climate #2022PresidentialElection #Analysis
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Climate investments that will have to be made between now and 2030 to meet the French climate target are considerable. The State and public authorities are now actively participating in these investments, and we have asked the candidates to tell us what will happen next, to tell us who will pay. So are they ready? Do they have very different financing strategies - and even more broadly climate strategies? What are the consensuses? And what are the under-addressed challenges? You will find the answers to these questions here.
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Anne Hidalgo
The center-left candiate form the "Parti socialiste" has proposals for most of the challenges identified by I4CE. The financial impact of most of her proposals has been estimated by her team. To align with the new European climate target, Anne Hidalgo mobilises 14 billion euros per year in additional public funding. She also relies on numerous tax reforms to encourage companies and households to invest and, to a lesser extent, on regulations. To finance the increase in public spending on climate and more generally her programme, she relies on tax reforms, the reduction of certain expenses, the reallocation of European funding and growth. Anne Hidalgo sets up an "ecological planning" with a multiannuality of funding, and appoints a Minister for Climate, Biodiversity and Economy.
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The Green party canditate has proposals for almost all the challenges identified by I4CE and the financial impact of almost all of his proposals has been quantified by his team. Yannick Jadot wants to increase France's climate target and, to achieve it, mobilises 25 billion euros per year in additional public funding. He also relies on numerous tax reforms and new standards to encourage households and businesses to invest. To finance the increase in public spending on climate and more generally for his programme, Yannick Jadot relies on his tax reforms, the redirection of public spending and on indebtedness to the ECB. Yannick Jadot wants to introduce a budgetary programming law on climate.
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Among the challenges identified by I4CE, , the far-right candidate from the "Rassemblement national" identifies some. Her proposals to address them are not precise and their financial impact has not been estimated by her team. Marine Le Pen makes very little mention of climate change in her programme. However, she has some proposals concerning the fight against climate change. Some imply investments, but she does not specify or give a figure for the role of public authorities in their financing. She also does not have any regulatory or fiscal proposals to encourage households and businesses to invest in climate.
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Emmanuel Macron
The current President has just released his program. I4CE's expert team is currently analysing his program and his proposals. The analysis will be published on our dedicated website in the coming days.
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Jean-Luc Mélenchon
The far-left candidate from "la France insoumise" has proposals to meet almost all the challenges identified by I4CE. The financial impact of almost all of his proposals has been quantified by his team. Jean-Luc Mélenchon wants to increase France's climate target and, to achieve it, he mobilises around €45 billion/year in additional public funding. To encourage households and companies to invest in climate, he relies on tax reforms and new regulations. To finance the increase in public spending for the climate and for his programme in general, Jean-Luc Mélenchon relies on an increase in tax revenue, the fight against fraud and tax evasion, an increase in economic activity and the reduction of certain expenses. He intends to combine his ecological planning with a multi-year budget plan.
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Valérie Pécresse
The center-right candidate from "Les Républicains" has identified most of the challenges highlighted by I4CE. Her proposals are not very precise as to how they will be implemented and their financial impact has not been estimated by her team. To reach France's climate objective, Valérie Pécresse favours private investments. To encourage households and businesses to invest, she does not plan to reform the regulatory framework and only marginally reforms the tax framework. She prefers to facilitate access to loans and to channel savings towards climate. Her programme does not anticipate an increase in public funding - its volume "will depend each year on the overall budgetary equation" - but intends to make it more efficient in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. She relies on the public finance programming law to give a multi-year perspective to climate financing.
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Eric Zemmour
Among the challenges put forward by I4CE, the far-right candidate from "Reconquête!" identifies some. His proposals to address them are not precise and their financial impact has not been estimated by his team. Eric Zemmour makes very little mention of climate in his programme. However, he has several proposals that concern the fight against climate change. Some of his proposals imply investments, but he does not specify nor give a figure for the share of public authorities in their financing. Nor does he have any regulatory or fiscal proposals to encourage households and companies to invest in climate.
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