Welcome to Frontier Fridays. This week the pro-military Union Solidarity and Development Party refused to accept the National League for Democracy's landslide electoral victory, the Tatmadaw agreed to cooperate with the Arakan Army to hold by-elections in Rakhine, Kirin announced it was suspending dividends from joint ventures with military-linked businesses, and COVID-19 spiked in Mandalay Region.
Another NLD landslide
As you all probably know by now, the NLD scored a resounding election victory on Sunday, winning even more parliamentary seats than in the 2015 election, with most of its gains coming in areas previously held by the USDP. The USDP has responded in Trumpian fashion, refusing to accept that it lost in former strongholds, asking supporters to send in evidence of voter fraud, and even demanding that a new election be held with military oversight. The Tatmadaw, however, has declined to get involved so far. Military spokesman Brigadier-General Zaw Min Tun made it clear the Tatmadaw is not buying the USDP’s narrative in an interview with BBC Burmese. While he declined to comment directly on the issue, he said the “Tatmadaw played no role in the USDP press conference” demanding a new election, and that the military’s stance “remains unchanged from what Senior General Min Aung Hlaing said on election day”. If you need a reminder, he told reporters the Tatmadaw will “accept the people’s desire”.
The NLD has given the USDP's tantrum very little attention, focusing instead on its second term. The ruling party extended an olive branch to ethnic minorities, sending a letter to 48 ethnic parties inviting them to join the NLD in building a federal democratic union and "ending civil war". The letter is the type of overture that many expected after the 2015 election. Instead, during its first term, the NLD failed to prioritise the peace process, was largely dismissive of ethnic minorities, and refused to cooperate with ethnic political parties. The relationship had deteriorated so much that few were expecting this type of outreach. But it’s a welcome surprise that could set a much more positive tone in terms of building bridges with ethnic minorities, and is hopefully a sign of more progress to come.
Speaking of ethnic minority parties, while some parties did see a degree of success in the election, it was probably less than what they were hoping for. The Arakan National Party was the most successful, winning a plurality of seats in Rakhine, including in areas that the NLD won in 2015, indicating disappointment with the ruling party has become more widespread in the state. Still, the ANP is crucially short of being able to form a majority in state parliament without the support of either the NLD or the military MPs. The Mon Unity Party won 11 seats in Mon State, while the Kayah State Democratic Party won eight. Both were improvements from the 2015 election, but not quite as much as they had expected.
Tatmadaw signals cooperation
The other big post-election spot of news is that the Tatmadaw and Arakan Army seem to have found common ground in their desire to hold elections in Rakhine as soon as possible.
Yesterday, the AA released a statement calling for the holding of polls in parts of Rakhine where the election was cancelled due to conflict before December 31, and offered to provide necessary assistance. Though it has recently been more outspoken on the treatment of Rohingya – perhaps as a ploy to keep the international community on its side – there was no mention of their disenfranchisement in the AA’s statement. The AA had been somewhat ambiguous on its position towards the election, and didn’t exactly send a positive signal when it kidnapped three NLD candidates in Taungup in October, so the statement came as a bit of a surprise. More shocking, though, was the response: the Tatmadaw welcomed the AA’s statement and offered to coordinate with the AA to hold elections in Rakhine.
While the intentions are good, election laws would seem to preclude the holding of by-elections during an election year or in the first year of a parliamentary term, so the earliest elections could probably be held is February 2022. Even if by-elections don’t happen for some time, the military’s reaction is a potentially positive development that could indicate some kind of detente with the AA – and yet another sign that it’s not entertaining the USDP’s rejection of the election results.
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Kirin suspends dividends
Japanese mega beer conglomerate Kirin said that it would not take any dividends from its companies in Myanmar, both of which are joint ventures with military conglomerate Myanmar Economic Holdings Limited. Human rights campaigners have aggressively shamed the beer company for allegedly funding genocide and other human rights abuses. In a statement, Kirin said it suspended its payments from Myanmar Brewery and Mandalay Brewery due to "significant lack of visibility regarding the future business environment... including the ongoing assessment into the destination of proceeds". The company had previously hired consultancy group Deloitte to investigate how the military was using profits from the ventures. MEHL filings in January to the Directorate of Investment and Company Administration under beneficial ownership rules revealed that at least some of the company’s shareholders are military units, adding weight to the allegation that any profits would fund military activities.
Rights group Justice For Myanmar welcomed the development and called "on all businesses to cut ties with the Myanmar military". JFM claimed the military profits "from assets stolen from the people of Myanmar" and "businesses like Myanmar Brewery finance war crimes and crimes against humanity and enrich generals". Amnesty International called the move an "important step" but said it "is not enough". Amnesty said MEHL "has shown no willingness" to reform or be more transparent, and Kirin should "responsibly end all business ties to MEHL". It seems clear that Kirin would never have taken these steps without this public pressure, so all credit should go to the rights groups that led the campaign. The beer company is one of a number of high-profile international companies that is reassessing its relationship with the Tatmadaw, after Western Union and Maersk cut ties with military-owned companies earlier this year.
COVID-19 spikes in Mandalay
COVID-19 took no time off for the election, with cases surging again, particularly in Mandalay Region. Myanmar recorded 7,663 new cases and 156 more deaths this week, bringing its total tallies to 65,598 cases and 1,508 fatalities since the outbreak began. While the vast majority of the cases continue to be found in Yangon, Mandalay saw an upsurge this week. The region recorded its three highest single-day caseloads of the pandemic so far - hitting 99, 111 and 101. The most affected townships are Chan Aye Thar Zan, Maha Aung Myay and Amarapura. Chan Aye Thar Zan has now reported 586 cases in total, making it the third worst hit township outside of Yangon. Daily Eleven reported that the influx of new patients has exceeded the capacity of quarantine centres, with new patients being told to self-isolate at home. Ayeyarwady Region also reported its highest single-day caseload this week, announcing 111 cases on November 8.
In other news...
The ASEAN Summit kicked off yesterday, with Malaysian Prime Minister Muhyiddin raising the issue of the Rohingya crisis, calling for a "durable solution to the dire plight of the Rohingya." Myanmar may find itself facing more pressure from its neighbours, as refugees increasingly seek asylum in ASEAN countries like Malaysia and Indonesia. Yet another NLD supporter was beaten to death in Ayeyarwady Region, allegedly by USDP supporters, marking the second such incident of the campaign season. Disgraced politician Kyaw Myint, chair of the now-dissolved United Democratic Party, was sentenced to two years in prison for escaping from prison back in 1999. A new species of monkey was discovered in Mandalay's Mount Popa region, with scientists warning that the Popa langur is facing extinction, with only about 200 individuals still alive.
These summaries are drawn from our Daily Briefing, which informs our members every weekday about current affairs in Myanmar, and from our Media Monitor, which features translations of headlines and stories in Myanmar-language media. Take a free trial of the newsletters here.
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FROM THE FRONTIER WEBSITE
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NLD claims huge victory
A higher-than-expected turnout appears to have put the National League for Democracy on course for a massive victory, including in the ethnic states where newly merged ethnic parties had been tipped to perform well.
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Online campaign of hate lurked behind campaign trail brawls
USDP candidates and supporters spread conspiracy theories about the ruling party colluding with Muslims against Buddhism, which may have encouraged violence against NLD members.
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Commission shuts down USDP demand for fresh election
Election commission says the vote was completed successfully and the “will of the majority” should be respected, after USDP accuses NLD of voter fraud and vote buying.
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U Hla Thein: the divisive election chief
Friends of the Union Election Commission chair describe a passionate democrat, but opposition parties accuse him of bias and observers say a failure to communicate has undermined trust in the commission.
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IN OUR LATEST ISSUE: OUT NOW
Myanmar's divisive election chief
On the eve of the vote, election commission chair U Hla Thein is at the centre of a political storm, accused of bias and a lack of transparency.
*PLUS* A LONELY GOODBYE • CANCER PATIENTS MISS OUT ON TREATMENT DURING PANDEMIC • HARD TALK OR HATE SPEECH? • THE RISE AND RISE OF THE SNLD • KACHIN ASPIRATIONS RIDE ON NEW PARTY • GOVT PLANS PADDY PURCHASES TO PROP UP PRICES • FACTORY WORKERS SUFFER THROUGH SHUTDOWN • IN RAKHINE, CANCELLATIONS LEAVE LITTLE SPACE FOR COMPROMISE
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