The Anonymous GOP Primary in the Granite State
This article originally appeared in National Journal on 3/22
No stranger to the political spotlight, New Hampshire was set to host the marquee matchup for control of the Senate in 2022. That is, until Gov. Chris Sununu decided against running.
Sununu, according to Republican officials and operatives who spoke with National Journal, represented the best chance to deny Sen. Maggie Hassan a second term. His decision to run for a fourth term in the governor’s office opened a vacuum from which a viable GOP candidate has yet to emerge. What was once going to be among the closest watched Senate race moved further down the pecking order.
Flashier, more expensive contests in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada have taken up most of the oxygen, as have the brutal Republican primaries in North Carolina, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. With President Biden’s approval ratings mired in the low-40’s, coupled with historical trends, Republicans smell blood in the water and are ramping up investments in key races. But the GOP might miss an opportunity in New Hampshire to tip the evenly divided Senate.
Party officials and consultants from both sides of the aisle who have spoken with National Journal believe that the Senate race in New Hampshire will be a tight contest. But Republicans have their work cut out with them after they put all their eggs in the Sununu basket. “With Sununu out of the race, we’re lacking that heavyweight candidate,” said Dante Scala, a professor of political science at the University of New Hampshire. “So what we’re left with is three candidates, all of whom have significant weaknesses to overcome.”
Those three candidates (so far) n the September 9 primary are
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State Senate President Chuck Morse, who was mulling a bid for governor if Sununu ran for Senate. He’s well respected among New Hampshire GOP insiders but not well known by midterm voters.
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Former Londonderry Town Manager Kevin Smith, who ran in the GOP gubernatorial primary in 2012 and lost.
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Retired Gen. Don Bolduc, who lost the 2020 GOP Senate primary to Bryant “Corky” Messner.
Despite securing 42 percent of the GOP primary vote two years ago, Bolduc is considered an outsider for the nomination. He entered 2022 with less than $60,000 cash on hand, while Hassan had $5.3 million.
Phil Taub, an attorney and influential GOP fundraiser in the state who considered his own Senate bid, told National Journal that Bolduc was not the same candidate he was two years ago. He said he’s got a different team around him now and has fully embraced the far-right elements of the GOP.
“He’s been very critical of Gov. Sununu, who continues to be the most popular and well-known Republican in statewide office.” Bolduc, for instance, called Sununu a “communist Chinese sympathizer” in an interview with radio host Jack Heath.
“You know, that’s not helpful to the cause,” Taub added. “But that’s the ground he decided to stake out.”
Taub is hardly the only GOP donor in the state with qualms about Bolduc. Bill Binnie, a media executive, told Heath that Bolduc “is not U.S. Senate material.”
Public polling on the GOP primary has been basically nonexistent, and because Morse and Smith did not file until after last quarter’s FEC deadline, they have yet to disclose any fundraising numbers.. However, one survey of the race illustrates the work ahead for Republicans.
A University of New Hampshire Granite State poll taken in December found that 55 percent did not know who Morse was, and 76 percent did not know about Smith. Meanwhile, Bolduc was unknown to only 33 percent of voters, a benefit of his past Senate bid.
Given Morse’s influential role in state politics, party insiders in both New Hampshire and Washington believe he has the inside track on the nomination at this juncture, but stress that it’s still very early. Taub noted that both Morse and Smith are well-liked in GOP circles, making this a tough choice for many.
“Morse has been the most successful Senate president any of us can remember,” Taub said. “He’s that guy who gets stuff done behind the scenes very thoughtfully, very methodically. He may be the least known Senate president and the most successful.”
Former President Trump has played an outsized role in Republican primaries across the country, but in New Hampshire, he is not as much of a factor. While Bolduc has embraced Trump’s election conspiracies and earned an email shoutout from the former president, former Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowski said on a local radio show that Bolduc’s comments about going all in on supporting Ukrainian militarily and using special troop operations on the ground was disqualifying. Lewandowski added that Trump was keeping an eye on the primary field. In a recent interview with the Washington Examiner, Trump said he was planning to endorse in Missouri, Ohio, and Pennsylvania—but left New Hampshire off the list.
Meanwhile, Morse and Smith have not embraced elements of Trumpism that other Senate candidates around the country are tripping over themselves to do.
“They’re trying to be all things to all Republicans,” Scala said. “No one’s going out of their way to be anti-Trump.”
Despite the hurdles, Republicans still stand a good chance of flipping the seat, given the negative political environment brewing for Democrats.
“Dating back to 2006, you really see New Hampshire voters at their most elastic in these midterm elections,” Scala said. Biden won the state by nearly 8 percentage points after Hillary Clinton carried it by just 1.3 percentage points.
“Maggie Hassan is vulnerable,” Taub said, comparing her to the state’s senior senator, Jeanne Shaheen. Both women, he said, have had similar careers as state legislators, governors, and eventually senators. “The difference in their popularity is stark. Shaheen is well-liked across both sides of the aisle, and for whatever reason Hassan hasn’t been able to capture that same amount of enthusiasm.”
While there have been light barbs traded between candidates, the race has been timid compared to the millions being spent on the airwaves in Ohio and Pennsylvania by GOP candidates hitting their primary opponents. But multi-candidate primaries can get messy quickly, and allegiances to candidates can be difficult to overcome.
“With multiple candidates in a primary, it’s a recipe for volatility,” Scala said.
But Taub believes that Republicans will be united behind whoever emerges out of the primary in September. While the eventual nominee will have to quickly pivot to general election mode, when Hassan has already booked $13 million worth of TV advertisements, Taub downplayed any concerns, saying that candidates are used to the short general election period.
“I’m kind of rooting for all of them, to be honest with you,” Taub said. “We’ll see the best person win. But it’s hard to choose, especially between Chuck and Kevin. Because they stand for mostly the same things.”
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