ISIS strikes Spain in coordinated terror attack; How did ISIS establish a cell in Spain?; Bannon and Dunford sow confusion on Trump administration strategy for North Korea.
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DAILY FOREIGN AFFAIRS NEWS & INSIGHT
M.G. Oprea, Editor

ISIS Strikes Spain In Coordinated Terror Attacks

Europe had been holding its breath in the months since the Manchester attack in May that killed 23 concertgoers, hoping that the steady stream of terror attacks in recent years might be over. But it was only a matter of time before it happened again, and on Thursday it did. A man driving a van ploughed into a crowd of people in a popular tourist area of downtown Barcelona, the second largest city in Spain. Fourteen people were killed and more than one hundred were injured. ISIS was quick to claim responsibility.

Hours later, the seaside town of Cambrils was hit with a second attack, leaving one dead and six wounded. The attackers’ vehicle, an Audi A3, overturned and five men emerged wielding knives and wearing fake suicide belts. The men were shot and killed by police.

As of this writing, seventeen people are in critical condition. The Spanish police say the two attacks are linked and they have arrested four men, including a Spanish national and a man from Morocco they say are connected to the Barcelona attack, although neither man is thought to have been driving the van. The main suspect in the Barcelona attack fled the scene and is still at large.

This attack was straight from the ISIS handbook. Literally. Over a year ago, the Islamic State issued a guide to would-be terrorists on how to implement a terror attack on a low budget and with minimal planning. One of those plans was to drive a vehicle, preferably a van, into a large crowd of people. The best place to find large crowds is a tourist hub. It also garners the most international attention, which is, of course part of their plan to maximize fear.

This tactic was used most devastatingly in the Bastille Day attacks in Nice last summer, which left 86 dead. It was also used by jihadists to plow into a crowded Christmas market in Berlin in December and in two separate attacks in England this year.

But unlike those attacks, which appear to have been carried out by individuals acting alone, the Spain attacks seem to be the work of an active terrorist cell. According to police, the van attack in Barcelona is connected to another incident Wednesday in which a house exploded in Alcanar, 120 miles south of Barcelona, killing one person and injuring six. Police initially believed the explosion was caused by a gas leak but revised their response after the van attack in Barcelona.

There was also reportedly yet another incident in which a car tried to get past a police checkpoint in Barcelona but was stopped by police who shot a man inside the vehicle. It’s unclear if that incident is connected to the attacks in Barcelona and Cambrils.

It’s not surprising that ISIS has claimed responsibility for the attack. But what is surprising is the fact that this is the first Islamic State attack to occur in Spain since the group rose to international infamy in 2014. In fact, the last time Spain was the target of an Islamist-related terror attack was in 2004, when four coordinated bombings killed 191 people on trains in Madrid. That was the worst terror attack in Europe since the end of World War Two. Since then, the country has been left alone, until this week.

What’s equally notable is that, up until the last few months, Spain has not been hit as hard as other European countries by the migrant crisis. The number of migrants arriving in the country has been very low given the proximity between Spain and North Africa, as well as the historical connection between Spain and the Muslim world. Now, as Italy works to bring migration from Libya to a halt, migrants are seeking alternative routes and Spain is an obvious choice. Although it’s probably not the final destination given the country’s chronic economic problems, it does represent a new target for ISIS.

If the Spanish were ever going to be welcoming to Muslim immigrants, attacks like this one are likely to sour them on the topic. Regardless, this attack is a reminder that ISIS and the religious ideology that motivates its followers will not simply vanish once the Islamic State is finally driven from its remaining strongholds in Syria and Iraq.

How Did ISIS Establish A Cell In Spain?

Catalonia, the region of Spain where the attacks took place Thursday, has been a hub of Islamist activity in Spain for years: “Analysts at  Jane’s Terrorism and Insurgency Centre (JTIC) database are among those who point to the potential involvement of a wider network and more coordination than in other recent terror incidents across Europe. They also point to the many warning signs that something was brewing in Catalonia.

“According to the JTIC, Spanish police have arrested at least 20 suspects connected to the Islamic State. ‘Notably, 11 of the suspects detained in 2017 have been arrested in Catalonia, where the latest attack occurred,’ the JTIC reports. ‘Of 38 counter-terrorism operations conducted in 2015 and 2016, 10 operations leading to the arrests of 24 suspected Islamist militants were conducted in Catalonia. Since the start of 2015, 43.2 percent of arrests targeting Islamist militants recorded by JTIC have taken place in Catalonia, highlighting it as a hub of Islamist activity in Spain.’

“Yet, for all that, ‘the two attacks and the relatively large geographic dispersal between Barcelona and Cambrils, the involvement of a larger number of people [than in other attacks in Europe in 2016 and 2017] and the potential discovery of a site to prepare powerful explosives in Alcanar suggest a much higher level of coordination than has been typically present in previous attacks.’”

 

Bannon And Dunford Remarks Muddle US Strategy For North Korea

Mixed messages coming from the Trump administration are making the North Korea crisis worse than it needs to be: “Stephen K. Bannon, the nationalist ideologue who is Mr. Trump’s chief strategist, said in an interview that there was “no military solution” in the Korean Peninsula, and that he might consider a deal in which United States troops withdrew from South Korea in exchange for a verifiable freeze in the North’s nuclear program.

“But Gen. Joseph F. Dunford Jr., the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff who was concluding a three-day visit to Beijing, dismissed the possibility of an American troop withdrawal. Speaking to reporters, he repeated the administration’s earlier position that military action was not preferable but still possible.

“General Dunford also said there were no plans to cancel American military exercises with South Korea scheduled to start Monday — drills that North Korea could interpret as a new provocation. He called the exercises “very important to maintaining the ability of the alliance to defend itself.”

“Later in the day, after a meeting in Washington with Japan’s defense and foreign ministers that was aimed partly at reassuring them, Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and Secretary of State Rex W. Tillerson expressed support for General Dunford’s statements. ‘Our approach has been endorsed by the president,’ Mr. Tillerson told reporters.”

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Syrian Army Encircles Islamic State In Central Syria Advance - Multiple sources report that Syria's army and its allies have encircled an Islamic State pocket in central Syria after a series of advances in the desert region.

"A political society does not live to conduct foreign policy; it would be more correct to say that it conducts foreign policy in order to live." -George F. Kennan
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