Copy
Trigger List
View this email in your browser
Dear Doug,
 
As the World Cup gets underway, a sporting analogy seems apt: In the past month, the Iranian government has scored a hat-trick against itself. Relying on brute force to suppress the ongoing protests has only deepened domestic anger and mobilised sweeping international condemnation. Collaboration with Russia by providing arms used in the Ukraine war has triggered an array of Western sanctions. And lack of progress on resolving outstanding safeguards concerns has resulted in a censure vote at the International Atomic Energy Agency's Board of Governors - the second in five months. Against the backdrop of increased maritime tension and repeated cross-border attacks into Iraq, the trendlines across intersecting nuclear, regional, and domestic dynamics give significant reason for concern in the weeks ahead. 

Warm regards,

Ali Vaez, Ph.D.
Director, Iran Project
International Crisis Group



IRAN SITUATION REPORT - November 2022

Key Recommendations

 
One would be hard-pressed to recall a period in recent years when the Islamic Republic was concurrently facing such a durable anti-regime movement internally, and such concerted diplomatic pressure from abroad. The protests that erupted following the death of Mahsa Amini in September remain a potent and determined series of events that the state's heavy-handed response has failed to quell, while prompting an international response that, along with nuclear intransigence and military cooperation with Russia, now constitute three strikes increasingly placing Tehran out in the international cold. The Iranian government’s response appears inclined to double down on suppressing the protests, but coercion may well instead end up fanning further unrest.

Developments and Analysis

Iran’s Autumn of Unrest. Nationwide protests have continued into their third month, with occasional ebbs rising into major flows around commemoration ceremonies for those killed by security forces and the mid-November anniversary of the 2019 protests (see the visual below, published by The Guardian, on their scope and intensity through 11 November). Human rights groups estimate that the number of fatalities may exceed 400, including 50 children; a senior IRGC commander on 20 November indicated that fatalities among the security forces was around 60. In a lengthy 28 October statement, the government's intelligence organs repeated and expanded on claims that the unrest was a U.S.-led plot, supported by Western and regional allies, and foreign agitation remains the state's go-to excuse against the deeply-rooted discontent it has failed to either address or suppress.

Read the full SitRep here.
Email Email
Twitter Twitter
Website Website






This email was sent to chessset@aol.com
why did I get this?    unsubscribe from this list    update subscription preferences
International Crisis Group · 149 Avenue Louise · Level 14 · Brussels B-1050 · Belgium

Email Marketing Powered by Mailchimp