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ON OUR RADAR Conflict trends as seen by Crisis Group analysts
SUDAN Thousands of protesters took to the streets of Khartoum on Monday to demand the military step down after it seized power in October. Security forces fired into crowds, killing at least seven protesters and prompting protest organisers to announce two days of strikes and civil disobedience. Crisis Group expert Murithi Mutiga says the security forces’ brutal response to protests will harden opposition to the ruling generals and complicate efforts, coordinated by the UN, to bring the two sides to the negotiating table.
WESTERN SAHARA Recently appointed UN Envoy for Western Sahara Staffan de Mistura continued his trip to the region this week, meeting the leader of the pro-independence Polisario Front in Algeria after he met Moroccan officials last week. Crisis Group expert Riccardo Fabiani says while the visit was exploratory, it was the first by a UN envoy since 2019 and signals renewed international engagement with the Western Sahara conflict. It was all the more important given the current state of high tensions between Algeria and Morocco. Prospects for resuming UN-led talks for now remain unlikely.
YEMEN The Huthis on Monday claimed missile and drone attacks on the United Arab Emirates (UAE) that killed three people. The attacks came amid a series of advances by UAE-aligned forces in Yemen, which have repelled Huthi forces from Shebwa governorate and prevented the Huthis from making further progress in neighbouring Marib. Crisis Group expert Peter Salisbury says the attacks demonstrate the Huthis’ frustration at their recent setbacks in Shebwa. He does not foresee the UAE overtly increasing its role on the ground in Yemen, where it exerts considerable influence over key armed factions but does not have boots on the ground.
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Alongside the battles over territory, the parties to Yemen’s war are embroiled in fights for control of key parts of the country’s economy. The latter struggle causes great civilian suffering. The new UN envoy should make it a central task to achieve an economic truce.
Also available in: العربية
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After all is said and done, the Iran nuclear deal struck in 2015 remains the best way to achieve the West’s non-proliferation goals and the sanctions relief that Tehran seeks. The parties must not squander what is likely their last chance to save the accord.
Also available in: العربية, فارسی
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Iran is closer than ever to being able to develop a nuclear weapon. This timeline of the Iran nuclear deal explains how we got to this point by highlighting key flashpoints from the deal's implementation in 2016 to now.
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The International Crisis Group is honoured to announce the appointment of Lubna S. Olayan as a new member of its Board of Trustees. By joining the Board, Ms Olayan will bring a unique perspective to our deliberations regarding Crisis Group’s global mission of preventing, mitigating and resolving deadly conflict.
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Leaderless, spontaneous protests spread rapidly across Kazakhstan in early January. In this Q&A, Crisis Group explains that demonstrators’ varied demands reflected discontent with worsening inequalities and calcified leadership and discusses the implications of the ensuing government reshuffle and mass arrests.
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Which conflicts should we worry about most in 2022? This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood and guest host Ásdís Ólafsdóttir talk to Crisis Group’s President & CEO Comfort Ero about our flagship survey “10 Conflicts to Watch”.
Listen to the series on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.
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This week on War & Peace, Olga Oliker and Hugh Pope talk to Nurseit Niyazbekov, professor of international relations at Almaty’s KIMEP University, about the wave of protests that swept across Kazakhstan, why they happened and their implications for the future.
Listen to the series on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.
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Successive coups in August 2020 and May 2021 have thrown Mali into turmoil as violence persists in rural areas. While their track record so far has been disappointing, the transitional authorities can still materialise the call for change and hold transparent general elections in 2022.
Now availalable in: English
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Troubling undercurrents in 2021 – from the U.S. to Afghanistan, Ethiopia or the climate emergency – didn’t send battle deaths soaring or set the world ablaze. But as our look ahead to 2022 shows, many bad situations round the world could easily get worse.
This video summarises Crisis Group's flagship annual publication “10 Conflicts to Watch in 2022”.
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Crisis Group invites you to join the launch of the EU Watch List 2022, our yearly publication identifying ten countries and regions at risk of conflict or escalation of violence, where a stronger engagement and early action driven or supported by the EU and its member states could help generate stronger prospects for peace and stability.
Date: Friday 28 January 2022
Time: 10:00-11:00 CET
The opening session, featuring Crisis Group's President & CEO Comfort Ero, will focus on global conflict trends and will be streamed live on Crisis Group’s Youtube channel.
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Richard Atwood, the International Crisis Group’s Executive Vice President, and Dr Leslie Vinjamuri, Chatham House's U.S. and the Americas Programme Director, discussed today and tomorrow’s most dangerous wars and crises and took a look at what people should expect in the year ahead.
Recording available here.
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Who's Willing to Fight Over Ukraine
International concerns about a Russian attack on Ukraine persist after a series of talks between Russian and Western officials last week remained inconclusive. Olga Oliker, Crisis Group’s program director for Europe and Central Asia, is on War on the Rocks' Warcast podcast to discuss the takeaways from the recent talks between the West and Russia and whether it is still possible to prevent an escalation of the armed conflict in Ukraine.
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Palestinian family faces eviction in East Jerusalem
The Israeli police evicted a Palestinian family from the embattled Sheikh Jarrah neighbourhood in East Jerusalem this week. Mairav Zonszein, Crisis Group’s senior analyst for Israel-Palestine, is on The World to explain why Sheikh Jarrah has become a flashpoint for Israeli-Palestinian tensions and how Palestinians are facing off Israel over land rights in East Jerusalem.
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Resettling Afghan refugees and the humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan
Afghanistan’s humanitarian and economic crisis remains unresolved, with millions of Afghans facing starvation, according to the UN and other organisations. Laurel Miller, Crisis Group’s program director for Asia, joins WHYY’s Radio Times (27’35’’-45’55’’) to discuss how the U.S. and other nations can ease financial restrictions on Afghanistan to avoid further deterioration of the humanitarian situation in the country.
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What’s going on in Kazakhstan?
In January, large-scale public protests have spread across Kazakhstan after the government lifted a price cap on fuel prices. Olga Oliker, Crisis Group’s program director for Europe and Central Asia, is on BBC’s The Inquiry podcast (17’08’’- 23’00’’) to explain what the recent protests mean for Russia-Kazakhstan relations and what actions to expect from the Kazakh government to curtail the protests.
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“Social leaders [in Colombia] are often the few voices within a terrified and traumatised community who are willing to speak up against the affectations of violence, whether against their communities or the environment”.
– Elizabeth Dickinson, Senior Analyst for Colombia, The Guardian
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“It is possible that they [Iran] would accept a scenario where not everyone is represented in the next government [in Iraq], as long as there is a sufficient amount of Shiite parties, including some Hashed factions”.
– Lahib Higel, Senior Analyst for Iraq, AFP
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“The Biden administration has not significantly improved transparency regarding the [U.S.] war on terror”.
– Brian Finucane, Senior Adviser for the U.S., Newsweek
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“Russia neither wants Iran with a bomb nor Iran bombed. The Russians are very good at compartmentalizing their differences with the West”.
– Ali Vaez, Senior Adviser to the President & Project Director for Iran, The New York Times
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“En Centro América en general, ha crecido un sentimiento de resistencia frente a lo que puedan ser demandas, presiones exteriores, externas, y esto ha hecho que [...] hayan precisamente aumentado las tensiones entre Washington y las capitales”.
– Tiziano Breda, Analyst for Central America, Voz de América
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“Nobody actually thinks that the [UN Security] Council will have a significant substantive role in negotiating a conclusion to a new war in Ukraine. The point will be to make the maximum amount of noise about Russia’s behavior”.
– Richard Gowan, UN Director, Foreign Policy
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“[The Biden administration] can and should provide assurances that companies that engage the Iranian market are immune to US penalties as long as Iran is in compliance with the [nuclear] deal”.
– Ali Vaez, Senior Adviser to the President & Project Director for Iran, AFP
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“The UAE has said it reserves the right to respond [to the Huthi attack on Abu Dhabi]. But it’s hard to see what it can do other than return directly to the frontlines of the anti-Houthi campaign or contribute to air strikes in Yemen”.
– Peter Salisbury, Senior Analyst for Yemen, Foreign Policy
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See all of our volunteer positions here.
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