The news and analyses of this week show geo-economic optimism and warrant geopolitical caution. Infrastructure development is one of the areas in which the great power rivalry between the US and China is unfolding. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is first and foremost about infrastructure development. The US is racing China in this area as well. The World Economic Forum article [How Asia could be the winner in the US and China's Belt and Road race] states that the infrastructure race can be a winning card for Asia. This race has ‘a major impact on the future of global trade and supply chains, manufacturing and services, but also in the development of strategic, long-term alliances.’ China is investing in its immediate neighbourhood, Asia, particularly Asia Pacific. The US has developed the Indo-Pacific Strategy, which is lagging behind BRI but can be considered as a potentially serious rival for BRI. The challenge for all the actors including US, China, Japan, India and others is to harness the geopolitical tensions and promote the fledgling geo-economic multilateralism that is appearing among various actors such as Japan and China. Japan is cooperating with both Chinese and American initiatives. This emerging multilateralism gives Asian countries, such as Thailand, more options to choose from and puts them in a better negotiating position.
In terms of the geopolitical tensions that need to be harnessed, the SCMP article [Pentagon warns of global power play behind Chinese projects such as Belt and Road Initiative] addresses a Pentagon report that highlights the American concerns regarding ‘military and non-military challenges to US strategic interests’. The military concerns relate to the development of new cutting-edge nuclear armament by China and ‘China’s pursuit of global military access’. In terms of the non-military concerns, the intentions behind and the soundness and impacts of Chinese investments in host countries, such as Malaysia, are cited as challenges to American strategic interests. This report is all the more telling in the context of the shift in focus, introduced by Trump in December 2017, in American national security policy away from terrorism and towards ‘great power rivalry’ with China and Russia. If not harnessed, geopolitical tensions can potentially hamper the geo-economic progress.
M. Forough
This week's Silk Road Headlines
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