The influence of China through BRI within a region could be compared to the philosophy of Yin and Yang. The leverage of China materializes when the influence of regional (and even global) powers dwindles and vice versa, i.e. getting a bigger piece of the pie. The focus this week is on the influence of China abroad (mainly the EU) and domestically.
BRI provides an opportunity for China to increase its presence and influence, for instance on the European continent. Macedonia (or at least the voters of the referendum) did not prefer the suggestion of the EU to change its name to 'Northern Macedonia'. The population chose to stride their own path, and remained `The Republic of Macedonia´. This illustrates the dwindling influence of the EU within the Balkan region. The Balkan has more kinship with Russia and Turkey due to cultural, historic and religious affiliation than with the EU, which provides a stepping stone for the Moscow-backed trade initiative Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). This makes the Balkan region more receptive for the BRI in comparison to the efforts of the EU [China, EAEU on Standby as Macedonian and Eastern EU Discontent Develops].
Some EU member states are acting more autonomously. Since the recent elections Italy has been openly flirting with China for investment purposes and these efforts might materialize into signing a Memorandum of Understanding in the nearby future. However, this atypical move of Italy is not surprising seen in the light of recent economic developments of the ECB (the ongoing Asset Purchase Program of around €2 trillion that started in 2015) and the concerns regarding the Italian economy. Yet, Italy expressed its loyalty towards NATO and the EU. To sum up: Italy is hedging against risks, albeit system risks [Italy Pivots to China in Blow to EU Efforts to Keep Its Distance].
Lastly, China is becoming an important player within the cyber domain. In recent times, China announced a social credit system for its own population, which is quite innovative and intrusive at the same time. However, the article shows that IT-companies are very interested in the Chinese market and are willing to comply with China’s wishes. For example, the Chinese government may switch off the transmission of telemetry data completely. Furthermore, China may also use home-grown Chinese encryption standards, instead of the factory settings. Despite importing technological innovation more than it produces China still dictates what happens within its borders, undeterred by the influence of these IT-companies. This attitude is in stark contrast to the EU’s approach to the same digital challenges, i.e. recent hearings of Facebook [China’s March Towards Cyber Hegemony].
China’s influence depends heavily on the contracting influence of the vested powers within that region. Critical self-reflection is essential for any relationship. Apparently China is willing to learn and looking at the developments of BRI, it is learning fast in order to increase its piece of the EU-pie.
A. Cikmazkara
This week's Silk Road Headlines
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