Perhaps Soothsayer had OBOR in mind, while expressing the following words in ‘Antony and Cleopatra’: ‘In nature’s infinite book of secrecy. A little I can read!’
Given the several recent investments in Africa (mainly the Sahel-region) in ports, infrastructure and conception of industrial zones, one could say that a strategic aim of OBOR is to reduce transport costs on (raw) materials to and export of Chinese goods from China by reducing custom duties (the cooperation with Eurasian Economic Union) and eliminating port dues (99 year lease of the southern port of Hambantota) as much as possible. This makes China an attractive trade partner with the aforementioned benefits, following in the footsteps of the United States with the “Marshall Plan” for Western Europe [Silk Road to the Sahel: African Ambitions in China’s Belt and Road Initiative].
Yet, the U.S. is not sitting idle. The United States has expressed intentions to support its partners in the Indo-Pacific region with the expressed ‘down payment’ of $ 113 million in 'digital, energy and infrastructure activities'. This is in stark contrast to the total cost estimation of OBOR itself, i.e. $ 4-8 trillion. In addition, the announced military aid to Israel ($ 500 million), Ukraine ($ 250 million) and Iraq ($ 850 million) illustrates the Indo-Pacific region is valued. Furthermore, the U.S. intends to strengthen the trilateral partnership between Australia and Japan. This could mean that the U.S. has lost focus on resurrecting the Quad (= the trilateral partnership and India). The same applies to the as yet unknown budget and activities affiliated to this partnership [Indo-Pacific: where is the money coming from?].
Also, there are critical sounds vis-a-vis OBOR. OBOR is carefully being compared to the fall of the USSR. From a demographic point of view ('the end of a long labour-force boom') and the increase of investments ('the toll of ill-conceived investments' or 'misdirected spending in the context of the Soviet Union’s decline'). Yet, this comparison might not be strictly restricted to China as a superpower. Nonetheless, the author makes the interesting observation that the coastal provinces are benefitting more from OBOR than the inlands. Subsequently, this could mean huge investment opportunities for private actors [Fall of Xi’s Empire’s China’s new silk road may lead to USSR-like collapse].
The plans of OBOR are nebulous. However, the decisions for OBOR made so far could be a reference for understanding less opaque foreign policies of other state actors. This focal point could be used to comprehend the dynamic playing field of the multipolar world order.
A. Cikmazkara
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