The red line of this weeks' selection is the regional impact of OBOR in geopolitics. This impact is visible in economics/trade, international relations (by developing foreign policy in alignment with or against OBOR) and (global and regional) security.
Britain openly flirted with OBOR in recent years, but never quite sealed the deal. In this respect, Britain's position vis-à-vis OBOR is similar to Brexit. First, in both situations Britain is perceived as the weaker party. Second, the EU and China are regarded as strong trade partners. Third, Britain is (still) member of the EU and the AIIB (Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank), its ambitions are covered by a cloak of invisibility. Prime Minister May might lift it up in the near future through a possible endorsement of OBOR. China considers Britain's endorsement as peripheral, since China reportedly has signed cooperative agreements with more than 80 countries and organizations. Later this week, it will become clear whether Britain is still pushing back its endorsement during the first official visit by the Prime Minister of Britain in five years [China-UK spat brewing over May’s Belt and Road caution].
Even countries that appear to have a cold relationship with China are warming up to OBOR, e.g. Mongolia. A country well-known for its nationalistic tendencies and alleged Sinophobe sentiments, it seeks to explore new sources of economic growth by aligning its interests with OBOR. It developed its own foreign policy, called Steppe Road Program. This policy encompasses creating tourism opportunities, constructing free trade areas and exporting products in agriculture, stock farming and light industry. This alignment has an adverse effect on the influence of the United States in that region, once neighboring countries follow this example in the same manner [ In OBOR-related Projects Mongolia Shifts Towards China, Away From U.S.].
The strategic power-struggle between India and China has a drastic impact on the geo-political landscape in Asia. India is forced to revise its foreign policy and provided its response to the OBOR by adopting the Cotton Road. In the past, India was considered a standalone powerhouse in South-East Asia, but this image is neutralized by Chinese investments in its neighboring countries. India is forced to cooperate more intensely with United States and its allies European Union (for securing trade routes near Somalia), Japan and Australia. Nonetheless, the aforementioned countries also have a vested interest in China. For example, for the United States China is a door for dialogue to North-Korea. [India’s Response to the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative].
Xinjang (the Northwestern province of China) poses a significant threat to certain Uygur fighters (a Chinese Muslim minority who seek autonomy and are purported to have joined ranks of extremist forces, e.g. Al-Qaeda and/or ISIS) and a great opportunity (connection for OBOR to be linked to Asia) for OBOR. China’s foreign policy vis-à-vis the Middle-East and (Central- and South-East) Asia will become increasingly intertwined with the aforementioned regions when promoting the spirit of OBOR “peace and cooperation, openness and inclusiveness”. Therefore, China might revise its foreign policy in a new direction based on rising levels of interest in coordinating counter-terrorism efforts with allies in conflict areas [China’s jihadist crisis reaches a critical juncture].
Every country is trying to cement its position in the fragmented geopolitical landscape. However, vested interests of countries vary per topic, e.g. international trade, climate change and security issues. It is apparent that OBOR is the change that leaves the way open for the establishment of other countries.
A. Cikmazkara
This week's Silk Road Headlines
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