Among the news items and analyses from this week, a brief by the Center for American Progress argues that the growing inward projection of the new US administration, together with generalised political instability on both sides of the Atlantic, is opening opportunities for China to further expand its global influence [As Trump Withdraws America from the World, Xi’s China Takes Advantage]. Although the article offers a decidedly gloomy outlook on this phenomenon, clearly drawing from the ‘China threat’ punditry that has become quite popular in the US since the 1990s, it nevertheless raises a couple of good points. First, it is true that China’s growing engagement can benefit from a less proactive stance on the part of the West, creating new opportunities and –more important- increasing the receptivity of third countries to China’s endeavours. Second, it rightly stresses the need for the US and Europe to deal with China in an as cooperative as possible fashion, so as to be able to make their priorities clear and minimise the potential strategic damages Beijing’s engagement could cause.
An interesting test bench is provided by Southeast Asia, where several countries are competing for China’s diplomatic attention while at the same time trying to prevent it from impinging on their own regional priorities [The Belt and Road Initiative and China's Southeast Asia Diplomacy]. Southeast Asian countries are obviously not all alike in the eyes of China, with Malaysia and Thailand being ‘pivotal’ partners among, respectively. ‘island’ and ‘peninsula’ countries. Others, such as Indonesia, are trying to attract further Chinese investment, but want to avoid China’s political influence to affect their own current and envisaged regional status (Indonesia being the largest country in the area). Nevertheless, China has become an increasingly important economic development alternative for Jakarta, as shown by an interesting East Asia Forum study [Why does Indonesia seem to prefer foreign aid from China?]. While OECD data shows that net foreign aid from the OECD’s Development Assistance Committee (DAC) and multilateral aid agencies such as the World Bank has sharply decreased in recent years, Indonesia’s foreign debt has been on the rise. The main reason for this is Indonesia’s increasing relative reliance on Chinese concessional loans, which are more appealing than ‘traditional’ Western aid given their clear prioritisation of infrastructure development and lower normative (i.e. values-based) standards.
Francesco S. Montesano
This week's Silk Road Headlines
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