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THIS WEEK'S SILK ROAD HEADLINES
The Belt and Road Initiative involves large-scale infrastructure projects in various developing countries. According to International Crisis Group (ICG), some of these projects come with major risks. As Michael Kovrig of ICG writes: ‘Companies, financial institutions and other organisations involved in Belt and Road projects will have to be more rigorous in assessing and addressing political and security risks. Quantitative metrics and vague strategic frameworks are not enough. It requires extensive field research, engaging on the ground and making qualitative judgements. China’s own capacity to assess political and country risk is not keeping pace with its sprinting ambitions.’ [The Twists and Turns along China’s Belt and Road]. While all relevant actors – China, host governments, companies – undoubtedly need to keep developing their own capacity to make risk assessments, there is also a need for independent providers of risk evaluation. This is particularly important since much of the debate on the long-term advantages and disadvantages of the Belt and Road Initiative revolves around the issue of risks.
Another article on this week’s list of headlines focuses on the rise of geopolitical competition in the Indian Ocean. The Indian geostrategist Brahma Chellaney writes that, in response to the growing Chinese involvement in this maritime region, the democratic powers Japan, Australia, Indonesia, the US and India should increase their maritime cooperation. In particular they should exert naval power at critical chokepoints in order to guard the gates to the Indian Ocean. ‘The aim’, Chellaney states, ‘should be to forestall the emergence of a destabilizing Sinocentric Asia’. [Democratic powers must intensify Indian Ocean cooperation]. It may be noted that he does not mention any European actors as members of his proposed coalition of democratic maritime powers, although both the European Union and NATO have had an ongoing naval presence in the Gulf of Aden since 2008. Neither Chinese maritime domination, nor intensifying great power tensions, nor European exclusion from regional geopolitics in the Indian Ocean are appealing prospects for Europe.
Frans-Paul van der Putten
To increase awareness of and facilitate the debate on China's Belt and Road Initiative, the Clingendael Institute publishes Silk Road Headlines, a weekly update on relevant news articles from open sources.
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