Brookings has published a short report [Signing up or standing aside: Disaggregating participation in China’s Belt and Road Initiative] that aims to disaggregate countries that are associated with the BRI and those that are not based on some criteria. As of January 2020, the report says, ‘138 countries have signed on to the BRI, ranging from Italy to Saudi Arabia to Cambodia.’ However, not all BRI countries have the same features. And not all BRI participation is the same. Some are based on MoUs and some on more broadly conceived agreements. This report maps out the BRI geography from a continental perspective and then disaggregates the countries based on the attributes that they have, such as different levels of income, democracy index, political stability and the like. The BRI, one could say, is the main game in town for now.
The initiative however has run into the pandemic situation, which has ‘severely impacted’, according to Chinese sources, 20% of the BRI projects and ‘affected’ 30%-40% of other projects [China turns on the charm to get its belt and road plan back on track]. Having (relatively speaking) successfully contained the pandemic in China itself and with an economy that is doing well enough (again relatively speaking) this year at 1.9% growth and projected by IMF to grow 8.2% next year [IMF’s latest assessment of China’s economy is not surprising], the Chinese government is now on a charm offensive to revive the ‘impacted’ and ‘affected’ BRI projects. Chinese diplomats are visiting many countries in Asia (such as Wang Yi’s recent visit to Thailand with promises of investment). Covid-related travel restrictions will be a challenge for revitalizing the BRI, together with political sensitivities in Asia and the rest of the world.
Mamad Forough
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