Most of the news and analyses this week is focused on the impact of Covid-19 on the present and future of BRI. The Sydney Morning Herald article [China's post-pandemic shopping spree] reports on the Australian Lowy Institute’s expert interpretation of the current state of affairs, which is as follows: Most countries are going to get out of this lockdown situation cash-strapped. China is going to be the first major economy to fully get back on its feet. China, the article argues, ‘has a big sweetener - its signature $1.5 trillion Belt and Road Initiative.’ The argument goes on to say that China ‘aims to tie the world’s post-coronavirus economic growth to China’. Needless to say, this all depends on how the Covid-19 situation unfolds. At every turn, the virus has managed to surprise everyone, especially those who thought they were invulnerable to it. But if the assumption of the article turns out to be right, i.e., if China recovers fully first, the argument seems to hold water and BRI might get more traction.
In non-coronavirus news, the Clingendael Institute’s China Centre has published a policy brief [Building the ‘Belt and Road’ in Europe?] that focuses on the increasing global success of Chinese construction companies (such as their large size and the fast rate of expansion) and their entry into the European construction market. Given that most of the global demand for construction will come from developing countries, the current level of Chinese presence does not pose a risk to European strategic autonomy. For now, China is more focused on the Eastern markets in the EU, more or less working under the umbrella category of 17+1, which is part of the BRI project, and is focused on 17 Eastern and Central European countries plus 1, that is, China. The paper concludes that ‘for the European Union to prepare for a future in which Chinese contractors are major players in the EU, it needs to develop a set of criteria that define a proper balance between economic cooperation and strategic autonomy with regard to China.’
M. Forough
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