Natural unnaturalness or unnatural naturalness. Opaque as the comparison may be, it accurately illustrates the dynamic relationships, or the perception of them, between state actors.
Russia and China are allies of convenience. Both have a challenging relationship with the US. Both have a dominant regional control. Both exert influence through energy politics or global economics/globalization. Reflection vis-à-vis their geopolitical position by neighbouring countries is not unimaginable, whilst both countries are looking to integrate the BRI and EAEU. Economically advantageous as it may be, there are some reservations regarding military cooperation by both parties
[Russia and China’s Positioning Within The Belt & Road, Shanghai Cooperation Organization & Eurasian Economic Union]. For the time being, this partnership itself creates a temporal equilibrium.
Last April India did not attend the 'Belt and Road Forum' over CPEC, since India claims not to have been consulted about China signing a MoU with Pakistan, nor having given its consent. CPEC runs through the Pakistan occupied area in Kashmir, also known as Azad Jammu Kashmir - AJK. This brings great tensions in a region where peace is frail. This fragility is emphasized by the recent Indian presidential decree to revoke the special status of Kashmir and Jammu. Although being part of 'the Quad' might strengthen India's military power, the country has to walk a delicate tightrope during the ASEAN-meeting where its officials meet with their US counterparts, whilst strengthening ties with China in the background
[India looks east amid US-China trade war]. A clear position in the pending trade ware is not openly displayed, since Iran, or its geopolitical position, also affects India's foreign policy. India remained neutral during the Qatar crisis in 2017 due to its ties with affiliated state actors. The defence partnership between India and the US may be considered healthy, yet the same cannot be said about their current economic relationship. India imposed retaliatory duties on several US goods in response to the loss of India´s Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) by the US
[India’s “Look West” Policy in the Middle East under Modi]. Although India is looking at the West, how long remains the question when more opportunities arise elsewhere.
India is becoming ever more skillful in slack wire, whilst China and Russia are bound together for better or worse, although the military partnerships (or the lack thereof) provide clarity in their alliances. Yet their relationships become more ambiguous due to their economic ties with eachother, but more importantly with their region. Consequently, unnatural naturalness, and natural unnaturalness.
A. Cikmazkara
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