Regional reactions to the BRI are shifting. The US and the EU are distancing from China, pronouncing it a national security threat or a systemic rival. Central and Eastern European countries are also experiencing a widening rift with China in the aftermath of American pressure on these countries to do so, unfulfilled promises of large investments from China, and other reasons [How China lost central and eastern Europe]. Africa is already deeply engaged with China. The economic repercussions of Covid-19 mean that African countries might be at a disadvantage in their bilateral negotiations with China, especially over debt relief.
South Asia (with the exception of India) and West Asia (with the possible exception of Israel, which is being pressured by the US to distance itself from China) are getting increasingly more enmeshed with China’s BRI. Chinese provinces are also seeking to develop an identity for themselves in the BRI. Fujian is deepening and diversifying its cooperation with the Saudi energy sector and Jiangsu is investing in the UAE [Positioning the Provinces Along China’s Maritime Silk Road]. In the meantime, Gwadar Port of Pakistan, centerpiece of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, received its first shipment of goods destined for Afghanistan [Gwadar Port Processes First Transit Goods for Afghanistan Markets].
Iran, which occupies a central place in the region, has recently officially confirmed that it is in the final stages of negotiating a 25-year roadmap. This can, and most likely will, change the regional dynamics in more ways than one. In the meantime, Iran, India and Russia are in the process of materializing the International North South Transit Corridor, which is supposed to give India access (via the Iranian Port of Chabahar) to Afghanistan, Central Asia, Russia and Europe. This can, for all intents and purposes, be named the Indian silk roads. West and South Asia are mostly looking eastwards, while the US and Europe are mostly taking a distance from China. Neither a Trump re-election nor a Biden presidency is likely to change this trend. The only obvious wild card so far is the coronavirus, which can unpredictably change these global dynamics.
M. Forough
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