Coup in Myanmar is a Difficulty for China and its BRI
On February 1st, the Burmese military, the Tatmadaw, carried out a coup d’état. The Tatmadaw has held full political power by means of a military dictatorship, from 1962 (also due to a coup) until 2011. Democratic reforms took place, and from 2011 until 2015 Myanmar was ruled by a political party backed by the Tatmadaw. In 2015, the National League for Democracy (NLD) party, which is not backed by the Tatmadaw, won the majority of seats in parliament and the presidency. From 2015 until the coup this month, Myanmar was not ruled by the Tatmadaw or a party it directly supports, although it still held significant power during that time.
Since the start of Myanmar’s Going Out policy in 2001, Chinese investments in the country have grown rapidly. The Chinese government has put a lot of effort into building a positive relationship with the ruling NLD since 2015. An important part of the relationship are BRI projects, including earlier proposed infrastructure projects that have later become part of the BRI. Myanmar has also agreed to cooperate with China on the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC) as a strategic part of the BRI. Although not all projects developed smoothly (some were suspended), China has significant interests in Myanmar.
What will happen to the BRI projects and Chinese investments in Myanmar after the coup is unclear. The military does not consider China its best friend, not in the least because of civil conflicts in the north of Myanmar, where the Tatmadaw claims China has supported ethnic minority groups that are fighting the military. However, there has been an effort from the Chinese side to maintain good relations with the Burmese military and whoever is in charge in Myanmar has an interest in good relations with its large neighbor China [Why China sees difficult choices in Myanmar's political realities]. A stable Myanmar is what’s most in the interest of China and the development of the BRI. Stability is exactly what the coup does not achieve. Millions are out protesting on the streets every day and the Chinese ambassador to Myanmar said on Tuesday February 16th that the current political situation is “not what China wants to see”. In order to remain friendly with both the Tatmadaw and the NLD, since it is still unclear how the situation will unfold, China blocked a UN Security Council statement condemning the coup but supported an amended version calling for the release of NLD leader Aung San Suu Kyi and others detained.
Vera Kranenburg
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