American presence in Afghanistan has reached its dusk, but it’s unlikely that China will step into the void and increase its influence, considering the security issues that stem from the return of the Taliban. So far, the landlocked state has largely been overshadowed by its neighbors, Iran and Pakistan, when it comes to economic and trade relations with China.
While China is known as a lender to poor high-risk economies, it is questionable to what extent the country will be committed to extending its engagement with Afghanistan through the BRI and other channels. This is chiefly because reputational costs and ensuring the security of projects and the workers have come higher up the list of considerations that guide BRI investments.
On 20 August, a suicide bomber targeted Chinese nationals in the Pakistani city of Gwadar, killing two children and injuring a Chinese engineer [Protests in Pakistan erupt against China’s belt and road plan]. Responsibility was taken by the Balochistan Liberation Army, a terrorist group based in Afghanistan. Their main grievances have to do with the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, the massive projects that are part of it and their possible role in severe shortages of water and electricity. Civic action protests have also taken place.
As BRI projects are met with such hard resistance in Pakistan, where China has established excellent relations with the government, it is very hard to imagine strong support from the Chinese for high profile projects in Afghanistan, where the situation will be unstable in the short- to mid-term.
Mirela Petkova
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