Britain’s Brexit Problem

In the wake of British Prime Minister Theresa May’s disastrous speech on the final day of this year’s Conservative Party Conference, Brexit looks less like a mandate for a strong governing coalition to execute the will of the people and more like a vague campaign slogan: “More than a year on from the Brexit referendum, the meaning of the result—both why it happened and where it will lead—is as unclear as it is non-negotiable. Politicians and journalists have tried in vain to interpret Brexit, labelling it, among other things, a ‘working-class revolt,’ a working-class ‘tantrum’ (as the current Europe minister diagnosed it at the conference), an ‘English revolt,’ a ‘free-market revolution,’ a ‘victory for real, ordinary people’ and a corruption of democracy by a small, scheming elite. All these readings contain kernels of truth: ‘Brexit’ was a blank canvas onto which a people projected their personal fantasies, fears, and fury. But Brexit cannot appease them all.

“Undeterred, May plows ahead with her messianic quest to carry out the ‘will of the British people’—the 26 percent of the population, that is, that voted to leave the EU for a vast array of reasons, a slice of the country that seems larger thanks to a vociferous tabloid press. But May and her party, as if held hostage to some higher force, seem increasingly uncertain as to where it will lead. A Jeremy Corbyn prime ministership looks more likely with every passing week, but a ‘glorious Brexit,’ a ‘red-white-and-blue Brexit,’ a ‘hard Brexit,’ a ‘soft Brexit,’ a ‘clean Brexit,’ a ‘jobs-first Brexit’ and even the mythical ‘no-deal Brexit’ all remain in the cards. For now, her infamous tautology, ‘Brexit means Brexit’ is the only helpful guide: Britain has agreed to do something, even if it doesn’t know what. By golly, it will.

“On September 22, May appeared in Florence to deliver a reconciliatory speech outlining what Brexit might mean. Confirming the impossibility of the task ahead, her vague appeasements only angered all sides. Through 50 monotonous minutes, the single clear step she took was to ask the EU for a two-year extension to Britain’s single-market membership—with a disconcerting assurance ‘that this will not go on forever.’ The proposed transition period would follow Britain’s expected exit from the EU on March 29, 2019. The EU was not impressed: ‘Today’s speech does not clarify how the UK intends to honour its special responsibility for the consequences of its withdrawal for Ireland,’ Michael Barnier, the European Chief Negotiator for Brexit, remarked. Until this clarification comes—along with progress on the two other stumbling blocks, the rights of EU citizens and financial settlements—the EU insists that no post-Brexit arrangement is possible.

“This transition period reveals starker fault lines within British society. For those that voted Leave, the prospect of postponing Britain’s independence to 2021—a full five years after the referendum—is a devastating delay. For certain Tories, it is also an unacceptable one: resurrected calls for a ‘no-deal Brexit’ (somehow leaving the EU absent negotiations or settlements) were greeted with applause at the Conservative conference, and [Boris] Johnson has used the unpopularity of the extension period to vaunt his own prime-ministerial credentials, contra May.”

Although the actual process of Brexit is still unclear, it’s also true that Brexit was a stark rejection of Britain’s political leadership. Who knows what that will eventually look like vis-à-vis the EU, but British leaders are going to have to figure out what it means domestically, and right now it doesn’t seem like May and her Conservative Party have any idea.

Iran Moves To Take The Role Of Regional Hegemon In Iraq And Syria

The Kurds might have inadvertently given Iran a pretext to step into the role of regional hegemon that Tehran has been angling to assume ever since the US invasion of Iraq in 2003. Following a meeting with Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan in Tehran on Wednesday, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said the recent Kurdish referendum vote on independence is “an act of betrayal toward the entire region and a threat to its future,” and that Iran and Turkey must prevent Kurdistan from declaring independence from Iraq. As for Iraq, Khamenei said “Baghdad should make serious decisions” in response to the vote. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said the Kurdish referendum was a ploy by foreign countries, and that Tehran would not accept any change of borders, a position echoed by Erdogan, who vowed to work closely with Iran (not a natural Turkish ally) to prevent the disintegration of Iraq and Syria.

This was always the danger of a U.S. intervention in the Middle East, going back 15 years. Unless America could ensure that Iraq would be a strong and independent power that would counterbalance Iran, Iran would seize the opportunity to dominate the Middle East. The Obama administration’s premature withdrawal from Iraq in 2011, together with the ongoing Syrian civil war, gave Tehran exactly what it needed to assert, as Khamenei did yesterday, that Iran has the right to decide whether or not the Kurds declare independence from Iraq. But there’s something else. Khamenei said America and Israel benefit from the Kurdish referendum, and accused America and its allies of trying to create “a new Israel in the region.” The reference to Israel is part of laying the groundwork to justify military intervention in Kurdistan, should it come to that.

Sweden’s Conviction Of A Syrian Soldier For War Crimes Is A Weak Response

Sweden has handed down its first conviction of a war crime for someone fighting for the Syrian government in that country’s civil war: “For the first time, six years into a war that began with Syria’s secret police accused of torturing teenagers and has escalated in brutality ever since, a member of the Syrian military has been convicted of a war crime. The perpetrator: a low-level soldier who is now in Sweden as a refugee. The crime: violating human dignity by posing with his boot on a corpse. The sentence: eight months in a Swedish prison.” Apparently, human rights advocates and legal experts are calling it a landmark event, saying it’s a sign that the international community can hold those involved in the civil war accountable for atrocities.

Sure. After six years watching a brutal civil war that has taken the lives of half a million people Europe thinks it will be helpful to convict a random handful of those involved after the fact, now that the atrocities have already taken place. The model for this is of course World War Two, after which Europe held trials for Nazi war criminals at Nuremberg. But that happened in conjunction with a massive war that had to be won first in order to have access to those men, not to mention to understand the full weight of the terrible acts they committed. This is different. No one is fighting a war to take down the Assad regime. In fact, Assad’s government is close to winning the civil war in Syria. There won’t be any trials in Europe for anyone really responsible for the war crimes committed by the Assad regime, to say nothing of Assad himself. The low-ranking soldier that Sweden found guilty was only caught because he came to the country as a refugee. We won’t be seeing any of Assad’s generals doing the same.

Some might say this trial and conviction in Sweden is a good example of Europe’s distaste for conflict and preference for bureaucracy and litigation to solve the world’s problems once the fighting is over. But that’s small comfort to the people still fighting and dying in Syria, and to those who have to look forward to once again living under the Assad regime. Maybe Sweden can write Assad a strongly-worded letter once his boot is firmly back on the neck of the Syrian people. That’ll show him.

Tillerson And More White House Palace Intrigue

Now for a little palace intrigue. On Tuesday, a report from NBC claimed that over the summer Secretary of State Rex Tillerson was on the verge of leaving the administration over frustration and anger with President Trump, and had to be talked off the ledge by, among others, Vice President Mike Pence. NBC’s report, which is based on anonymous sources, also claimed Tillerson has called Trump a “moron.” In response, Tillerson delivered a news conference in order to deny that he had ever thought of leaving his post at the State Department and to make clear that he will serve as long as the president requires it. President Trump responded later in the day saying he has “total confidence” in Tillerson.

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Turkey Sentences 40 To Life In Prison For Attempted Assassination Of Erdogan - Turkey’s courts have convicted forty people of trying to assassinate President Recep Tayyip Erdogan during last summer’s coup attempt. The defendants allegedly stormed the hotel where Erdogan was staying, just minutes after the president had fled.

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Suspect In Canada Terror Attack Had Been Ordered To Leave US - “A Somali man suspected of carrying out what was called a terrorist attack in Alberta last weekend came to Canada and was declared a refugee after being ordered expelled from the United States several years ago, officials said on Wednesday.”