Climate researchers from Africa and the UK discuss African climate model evaluation at LaunchPAD workshop
From 24 - 28 February LaunchPAD (Priority on African Diagnostics) held its first workshop in Cape Town, South Africa, which brought together climate researchers and early career fellows from the UK and African universities. LaunchPAD is a key part of the FCFA IMPALA legacy in improving, sustaining and progressing African climate model work and maintaining and extending the collaboration and network between British and African research institutions. The workshop provided an opportunity for LaunchPAD researchers and fellows to meet in-person, share their progress on model evaluation in different regions, and exchange feedback and ideas.



Co-production and understanding climate information needs at the Sixth International Conference on Climate Services (ICCS6)

Download the paper here.

Recent Trends in the Daily Rainfall Regime in Southern West Africa
A recent study from AMMA-2050 researchers found that the mean annual rainfall during the first rainy season (April - July) is observed to have a minor trend due to less frequent but more intense rainfall mainly along the coast of Southern West Africa (SWA) over the last two decades. The north–south seasonal changes exhibit an increase in mean annual rainfall over the last decade during the second rainy season (September–November) linked by both an increase in the frequency of occurrence of rainy days as well as an increase in the mean intensity and extreme events over the last decade.

Download the paper here.

How can we effectively build capacity to adapt to climate change? Insights from Malawi
Despite significant investments in capacity building across sub-Saharan Africa, to date no rigorous assessment has been undertaken to interrogate the extent these efforts have effectively translated into planning and implementing climate change responses. A recent study by UMFULA researchers investigates the design, content and methodologies effective in building capacity for climate change adaptation. It also highlights the need for a more rigorous coordination and monitoring of training efforts and appropriate institutional support for action following training sessions are essential to enhance adaptation planning across sub-Saharan Africa.
 

Possible futures for East Africa under a changing climate: Technical appendix for HyCRISTAL's Climate Risk Narratives
In this technical appendix, the HyCRISTAL researchers summarise the underlying climate information and science upon which the climate content of the  three possible climate futures for East Africa (Future 1: Much wetter, large increase in extreme rainfall and hotter; Future 2: Increase in extreme rainfall and hotter; Future 3: Much hotter and drier with more erratic rainy seasons) has been determined. 
 

Respond Magazine COP25, Madrid 2019
FCFA research featured in an article in the Respond Magazine that was disseminated at COP 25. The article is found on pg. 32 and 33 and titled Protecting East African Tea Exports against climate change, focussing on FCFA research from the Climate Information for Resilient Tea production (CI4Tea) project.

Download the Respond Magazine here.

Soft approach of face-to-face meetings boosts water delivery planning in Maputo
A series of stakeholder dialogues in the Mozambican capital, organised by climate scientists and geographers from FRACTAL, showed the value of face-to-face meetings.  Specifically they highlight how these dialogues can smooth out some of the bureaucratic issues so that water managers can better integrate climate information into their service delivery planning in future. Read more here.



New climate model provides clearer rainfall projections for West Africa
When climate scientists from AMMA-2050 and IMPALA used the CP4-Africa model to project changing rainfall and storm activity across the Sahel region of West Africa, it showed that rainfall from extreme events will increase in intensity by five to ten times across the region. This is significantly higher than what a conventional climate model projects, which only suggest a two to three fold increase in the rainfall associated with high-impact events. Scientists maintain that even a two to threefold increase in the intensity of such events would have ‘huge adverse impacts’, meaning that the new outputs from the CP4A model are cause for even greater concern. Read more here.

Has climate change played a role in the exceptional Eastern African 2019 short rains
The 2019 Eastern African short rains (October-December) was one of the wettest in recent decades, with many places seeing more than double the typical amount of rainfall for the season. The seasonal forecast from the 53rd Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF) did indeed note that above average rainfall was most likely. Recent work by HYCRISTAL has used climate models to look at the relationship between the frequency of strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events and climate change. Read more here.

Open dialogue leads to better climate infrastructure planning in Harare, Zimbabwe
Three years ago, the main water treatment plant for the Zimbabwean capital, Harare, received an injection of funding for a much-needed upgrade, as part of a ‘rapid results’ approach by the national government. But if national government officials had sat down with Harare City Council engineers, who are more directly involved in the day-to-day operations of water delivery to city residents and industries, they would have found that it might have been better to first invest in upgrading the bulk-water pipe infrastructure before repairing the treatment plant itself. FRACTAL assisted government decision-makers by providing them with current, useful climate science, and created discussion platforms that brought together scientists, development organisations, and officials across different spheres of government so that they can plan more coherently to prepare for future climate conditions. Read more here. 

In Senegal organic fertiliser protects soil health after heatwaves
The Peanut Basin in Senegal is the heartland of agriculture in this West African country. On an average hot day in summer the temperature might reach around 28°C. But the temperature in the soil may climb to as high as 60°C, which can take its toll on the microbial life in the top layer of ground.  Researchers from AMMA-2050; Dr Laure Tall (biological scientist at the Senegalese Agricultural Research Institute (SARI) based in Dakar) and Paul Cisshow (doctoral student) investigated the effect of the duration of heat stress on the stability and diversity of microbial communities. Read more here.

Link between temperature increase and crop declines in West Africa
New crop modelling now confirms that the rise in regional temperature could account for significant cereal losses in West Africa in recent years. Climatologist Dr Benjamin Sultan, from the French Institute of Research for Development (IRD), together with his colleagues recently ran a series of computerised crop models to get a clearer picture of the likely role of temperature increases on millet and sorghum yields in West Africa. Read more here.

The important role of knowledge brokers in the co-production of climate information
Knowledge brokers play an essential role in creating, facilitating, and fostering links between climate information producers and users.  They help to enhance the understanding between the two groups through co-production. Ultimately this understanding helps to improve the uptake of climate information and collaboration amongst a wider group of actors. Read more on the role of knowledge brokers in the co-production of climate information here. 

Central and Southern Africa: High-Stakes Decisions under Climate Uncertainty
UMFULA has been working over the past four years to address critical knowledge gaps in the understanding of central and southern Africa’s climate and to effectively communicate climate information to decision-makers – crucial for enabling climate-resilient development in these regions. The research has generated important advances in understanding the complex processes that influence variability and extreme events in the climate system. This enables evaluation of the credibility of the modelled future climate, in contrast to more dated approaches which simply average the results of climate models. Read more here. 

Impacts felt in Eastern Africa from tropical cyclones and warmer waters in the Indian Ocean
The present conditions in the Indian Ocean are favourable for cyclone formation because sea surface temperatures in the western Indian Ocean are particularly warm, as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has entered an unusually strong positive phase. This positive phase of the IOD is known to bring enhanced rainfall across Eastern Africa, and there have been damaging impacts from heavy rain in Uganda, Tanzania, Kenya, Ethiopia and Somalia over the past few months, with hundreds killed and millions affected. Read more in HyCRISTAL’s news piece on the impacts of IOD and Madden-Julian Oscillation on East Africa here. 

Understanding future river flows in Lake Victoria Basin
CP4-Africa’s model outputs suggest that there will be a greater increase in the intensity and severity of storms across the Lake Victoria Basin region than predicted by global climate models that do not include convection. This prediction will see a potential increase in the likelihood of high river flows during the rainy seasons. This information is now feeding into a second modelling process, done in conjunction with HyCRISTAL researchers from the British Geological Survey (BGS), to understand what the increase in  extreme rainfall events will mean for river flows and water resources in the East African basin. Read more here. 

FCFA sponsored journalist reports from COP25 in Madrid
FCFA sponsored a Kenyan climate journalist to attend COP 25 in Madrid and report on matters and discussions relating to Africa. Two articles were produced; one focussing on Africa Group of Negotiators putting forward a special circumstances proposal for Africa and the other detailed the overall outcomes for Africa.