Yemen Data Project: Collating data on political violence and Saudi coalition air raids.

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YEMEN DATA PROJECT AIR RAIDS SUMMARY DECEMBER 2021

Bombing Rates and Civilian Casualties Surge Countrywide as Conflict Intensifies

Air raids and civilian casualties reach sixteen-month high as GEE mandate ends

Air raid numbers in November rose by 27% month-on-month to the highest rate since June 2020. Yemen Data Project recorded 223 air raids with up to 894 individual airstrikes in November, resulting in 29 civilian casualties - the highest numbers in a single month since June 2020.

In 2021, air raids* have primarily focused on the active frontlines in Marib as well as in Sa'ada. This changed in November with air raid numbers surging in governorates across the country. Saudi coalition bombings increased sharply in the capital and in the governorates of Al-Hudaydah, Hajja and Taiz. Air raids were recorded in Dhamar for the first time since February, in Amran for the first time since March and in Ibb for the first time since February last year, taking the total number of air raids over 24,000 since the start of the Saudi-led air campaign in 2015.

Notable Highs in Al-Hudaydah and Capital

YDP recorded the highest number of coalition air raids in Al-Hudaydah (24) since a de-escalation in the governorate was negotiated via the Stockholm Agreement in December 2018. In the capital (Amanat Al-Asimah), air raids in November (17) reached the highest rate in four years - the most since December 2017 when former President Ali Abdullah Saleh was killed in the city by the Houthis. Around the active frontlines in Marib, air raids continued at the high rate from the previous month, matching the third highest monthly rate in the governorate since the start of the Saudi-led bombing campaign in March 2015 and the highest monthly rate since September last year.

Air War Escalates as GEE Mandate Ends

The November air raid rate was 41% above the monthly average seen so far in 2021. The widespread escalation in the Saudi-led air war coincides with the end of the GEE mandate on 31 October. The UN Human Rights Council Group of Eminent Experts (GEE) on Yemen was established in September 2017 and tasked with investigating violation of human rights law, humanitarian law and war crimes in Yemen. The GEE - the only independent international body investigating violations in the conflict - was dissolved by a UNHRC members' vote on 7 October.

YDP recorded up to 894 individual airstrikes in November averaging almost 30 airstrikes per day, the highest maximum number in a single month since June 2020. Air raids hit residential areas, farms, a border customs facility, a plastics factory, and a medical facility under construction.

The deadliest air raids for civilians in November were bombings in residential areas. Two air raids hit residential areas in Al-Hudaydah on 12 November and 14 November, killing seven civilians including three children. A further nine civilians were injured in the two bombings. Two additional air raids in Al-Hudaydah on residential areas killed two civilians and injured four. At least two civilians were killed in an air raid on a civilian house in Sa'ada governorate on 6 November. In November, YDP recorded the highest monthly number of civilian casualties in the air war since June last year.

Of the 165 air raids in the month where the target could be identified, 28% hit civilian targets.

AIR RAIDS UP 27% ON OCTOBER 2021
CIVILIAN CASUALTIES UP 314% FROM OCTOBER

TOTAL NUMBERS MARCH 2015 - NOVEMBER 2021
CIVILIAN CASUALTIES 18,661
AIR RAIDS 24,025

The highest number of air raids recorded in a single month remains September 2015 at 920, which was also the deadliest month in the air war when at least 756 civilians were killed.
April 2015 saw the highest number of civilian casualties (fatalities and injured) in a single month at 1,745.
In YDP's data the air raid* figure is the most conservative. The true number of individual airstrikes ranges from the minimum of 24,025 to a maximum airstrikes of 71,284 since March 2015.

NOVEMBER 2021

In November, 21% of bombings hit civilian targets** and 53% hit military targets. In 26% of air raids in November the target could not be identified. Of the 165 air raids where the target could be identified, 72% were military, 28% of identifiable targets were civilian. 23% of identified targets were residential areas or farms.

MOST HEAVILY BOMBED GOVERNORATES NOVEMBER 2021

MARIB: Breakdown of districts targeted

Marib continues to be the most heavily bombed governorate. 41% of all Saudi-led coalition air raids in November targeted the governorate. Sirwah and Al-Jubah were the most heavily bombed districts in the country with 87% of air raids in the month in Marib hitting the two districts. Al-Jubah saw the highest rate of bombings in the district since the start of the air war in 2015, surpassing the record high (34) in October. Sirwah remains the most heavily bombed district countrywide since the air war began.

SA'ADA: Breakdown of districts targeted

Air raid numbers in Sa'ada were at the highest rate in more than a year.
Al-Dhaher district was the most heavily bombed district in the governorate in the month. Despite Sa'ada being the second most heavily bombed governorate in November, Hays district in Al-Hudaydah was the third most heavily bombed district (14) countrywide, marking the heaviest month of bombing in Hays since the start of the air war in 2015.

POLITICAL VIOLENCE DATA

Separate to our air raids data collection, as part of our work to enhance conflict monitoring and data sharing, YDP is collaborating with the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project on countrywide political violence data.

This extensive monitoring effort has allowed ACLED and YDP to provide the most comprehensive coverage of political violence across Yemen.

In November, ACLED reported more Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) events in Al-Bayda governorate than in any other month since November last year.

In the week of November 13-19 clashes intensified between Houthi and anti-Houthi National Resistance forces intensified in Al-Hudaydah, resulting in the second most violent week in the governorate so far this year.

In week 20-26 November, ACLED recorded anti-Houthi National Resistance forces gaining territory on the Al-Hudaydah-Taiz border following two weeks of Houthis advances; coalition airstrikes targeting Houthi drone and ballistic missile infrastructure in the capital, contributing to a 300% spike in violence compared to October, and a decrease in fighting in Marib governorate, with Houthi forces failing to make territorial advances for the second consecutive week - a first since early August.

ACLED's methodology on casualty counting differs from Yemen Data Project's air raids data. See here for more details on ACLED's methodology and coding decisions used in their data collection.

FOR MORE DETAILS AND COMMENT PLEASE CONTACT:
Iona Craig (UK) +447446598852 iona.craig@yemendataproject.org

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*Air raid refers to a single incident. One air raid incident includes all air strikes on a single location within approximately one hour and therefore may comprise multiple airstrikes. Airstrikes per air raid can vary greatly from a couple to several dozen. Read more.

**Non-military targeting may be an indication of fighting taking place in urban areas resulting in the possible change of use of buildings and/or escalated targeting of civilian sites. The dataset lists target category and subcategory for each incident, where information on the target is available. When listing permanent structures the target category refers to the original use of the target e.g. a school hit by an air raid is referred to as a school building with no further assessment made on its use at the time of the air raid, or any possible change of use over the course of the conflict.

Copyright © 2019 The Yemen Data Project. All rights reserved.

For further information on the Yemen Data Project please visit www.yemendataproject.org or contact the project's spokesperson, Iona Craig: iona.craig@yemendataproject.org

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