FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: December 22, 2022
CONTACT: press@gallegoforarizona.com

NEW POLL: Ruben Gallego Would be Strongest Candidate for 2024 Arizona Senate Race
PPP survey shows Sinema favorability at just 31/47, Gallego at 35/27; 
3-way race: Gallego 40%, Lake 41%, Sinema 13%

PHOENIX, ARIZONA – Today, Public Policy Polling released a survey of Arizonans, showing that headed into the 2024 election, Senator Sinema is broadly unpopular and trails Rep. Ruben Gallego significantly in a three-way race. The poll shows Gallego at 40% and Republican Kari Lake at 41%, with Sinema in a distant third at 13%.

As PPP’s memo (below) explains, the survey of over 650 Arizona voters shows “Ruben Gallego is considerably more popular in the state than Kyrsten Sinema and would be a top tier Senate candidate regardless of what she decides to do in 2024.” While Sinema has no realistic path to victory in a 3-way race, Gallego would start effectively tied with the Republican. The only potential spoiler here is Sinema in her potential 3rd party run.

"You don’t need a poll to understand why voters aren’t happy with Senator Sinema: she’s consistently voted with Wall Street bankers and big drug companies, and against the interests of Arizonans. Sinema’s values are not Arizona’s values. Writing a different letter after her name isn’t going to change that,” said Rep. Ruben Gallego. “There’s clearly a strong desire for a Senator who will put Arizona first.”  

Read the full Public Policy Polling memo below:



From: Tom Jensen, Public Policy Polling
To: Interested Parties
Subject: Ruben Gallego Well Positioned for 2024 Senate Race
Date: 12-21-22

A new Public Policy Polling survey of Arizona voters finds that Ruben Gallego is considerably more popular in the state than Kyrsten Sinema and would be a top tier Senate candidate regardless of what she decides to do in 2024.

Key findings from the survey include:

- Sinema continues to be unpopular, with only 31% of voters rating her favorably to 47% with a negative opinion for a net favorability of -16. Gallego’s favorability rating is a net 24 points better at +8 with 35% of voters rating him positively and just 27% holding an unfavorable view of him. To the extent Sinema has any popularity it’s mostly with conservatives at this point- Trump voters give her a 43/27 favorability rating while she comes in at 20/69 with Biden voters.

- A US Senate race with Kari Lake as the Republican candidate would be a toss up whether Sinema ran as an independent candidate or not. In a three way contest Lake would get 41% to 40% for Gallego with Sinema at just 13%. In a head to head race Gallego edges Lake 48-47. Although Sinema would not have a serious path to victory as an independent candidate she could have a spoiler effect since she gets 14% from Biden voters but only 9% from Trump voters.

- Gallego is a stronger candidate than Sinema head to head against Kari Lake. Sinema as an independent does four points worse against Lake, trailing by 3 points at 42-39 in contrast to Gallego’s one point advantage as a Democrat. Although Republicans may like Sinema at the moment that doesn’t actually extend to much willingness to vote for her against someone like Lake who even with loser stench from her defeat for Governor still has an 82/9 favorability spread with Trump voters. 

Public Policy Polling surveyed 678 Arizona voters on December 19th and 20th with a margin of error of +/-3.8%. Half of the interviews were conducted by phone and half were conducted by text.

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