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Dear friends,
On October 20, 2018, U.S. President Trump announced his intent to withdraw the United States from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF), an historic agreement reached in 1987 between the United States and the Soviet Union to eliminate all of their nuclear and conventional ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles with ranges of 500 to 5,500 kilometres, and to utilize extensive on-site inspections for verification of the agreement.
6 months notification is required for withdrawal from the treaty, so unless reversed, the U.S. decision to withdraw would take effect in late March 2019.
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Presidents Reagan and Gorbachev sign the INF Treaty in 1987
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US-Russian conflict over the INF
The U.S. decision follows a years-long U.S.-Russian dispute about whether each side is violating the treaty.
The US alleges that Moscow has developed and deployed a prohibited missile, a ground-launched cruise missile (GLCM) having a range prohibited under the INF Treaty. The U.S. administration has also expressed concern that China, which is not a party to the INF Treaty, is gaining a military advantage in East Asia by deploying large numbers of treaty-noncompliant missiles.
Russia has denied violating the INF, and has responded with allegations that the US is in violation of the INF Treaty by deploying launching systems capable of firing cruise missiles. In addition, Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned that the U.S. plan to withdraw from the treaty could lead to a new arms race and that any nation that hosts U.S. intermediate-range missiles will “put their own territory under the threat of a possible counterstrike.”
For further background see Trump to Withdraw U.S. From INF Treaty, Arms Control Association, November 2018).
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US Congress and the INF Treaty
President Trump’s decision on the INF Treaty is proving controversial in the U.S. Congress.
Leading Democrats are concerned that President Trump’s decision was taken in order that the U.S. Administration could then develop new nuclear weapons systems currently prohibited under the INF, and that it would also remove constraints on Russian nuclear weapons development and deployment.
“President Trump’s reckless decision to pull the U.S. out of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty alienates us from our allies and risks returning us to the Cold War postures of yesterday,” said Senator Merkley.
“A new nuclear arms race would be costly to our treasury and dangerous for the world. Congress must not fund new ground-launched or ballistic missiles that will fuel a dangerous arms race across the globe.”
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The U.S. Senate overwhelmingly ratified this seminal arms control agreement, which has strong bipartisan support. Pulling out of the INF Treaty plays squarely into Russia’s hands while undermining America’s security and betraying our NATO allies.
Senator Markey, PNND Co-President and Co-author of Senate Resolution 3667, Prevention of Arms Race Act of 2018, opposing US withdrawal from the INF Treaty.
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PNND Co-President Senator Markey, a leading member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, has joined with Senators Merkley, Warren, Gillibrand, Wyden, Feinstein and Sanders (Independent) in submitting S.3667 the Prevention of Arms Race Act of 2018.
The Senate Resolution calls on the U.S. Administration to remain in the INF, and instead seek additional meetings of the Special Verification Commission (established in the INF) to resolve the concerns related to alleged violations of the Treaty.
In addition S.3667 would maintain constraints on the U.S. producing shorter- or intermediate-range ground launched ballistic or cruise missile system even if the INF treaty is terminated.
The Trump decision has also been opposed by leading members of the House of Representatives, including Rep Adam Smith who is set to become the Chair of the House Armed Services Committee in the new congress and Rep Eliot Engel who is set to become the Chair of the House Foreign Relations Committee.
Some European voices
On October 25, PNND member Fabian Hamilton MP (UK) raised the issue of U.S. withdrawal from the INF in the UK House of Commons, asking for the UK government’s position.
On October 23, Federica Mogherini, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy (and a former PNND Council Member), warned the Trump Administration that INF withdrawal could trigger another nuclear arms race.
According to Mogherini, “The INF contributed to the end of the cold war and constitutes a pillar of European security architecture since it entered into force 30 years ago. Thanks to the INF treaty, almost 3,000 missiles with nuclear and conventional warheads have been removed and verifiably destroyed. The world doesn’t need a new arms race that would benefit no one and on the contrary would bring even more instability.”
Mogherini has also expressed concerns to Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov regarding the allegations about Russian non-compliance with the INF and the need to resolve this issue.
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Federica Mogherini, EU HIgh Rep for Foreign Affairs and Security, meeting with Sergey Lavrov, Russian Foreign Minister, to discuss INF and other critical issues.
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In Germany, there is strong cross-party support for the INF Treaty.
Foreign Minister Heiko Maas (SDP) has expressed concern over the U.S. decision and has vowed to personally attempt to save the INF agreement.
"INF must be preserved," said Roderich Kiesewetter, a PNND Council Member and the representative of the ruling CDU/CSU bloc joint faction in the German parliament's foreign affairs committee.
Agnieszka Brugger, the Greens foreign policy spokesperson and also a PNND Council Member described U.S. withdrawal from the INF as "risky nonsense" and a "dangerous, dumb decision".
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Yours sincerely
Alyn Ware
PNND Global Coordinator
On behalf of the PNND Coordinating Team
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