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ECHOES OF THE SAHEL - A SPECIAL ISSUE focusing on Mali's Algiers Accord
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This special issue newsletter is brought to you by Clingendael's Conflict Research Unit. See our Sahel Programme for our experts, feel free to forward this newsletter, and subscribe here.
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June 2023 | The Peace Process in Mali: Navigating the Complexity of the 2015 Algiers Accord
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This week, changes in Mali’s political landscape and security apparatus could alter the country’s course in its pursuit of long-term peace. On Friday, Foreign Minister Abdoulaye Diop called on the UN Security Council to withdraw the UN mandated peacekeeping operation MINUSMA on the grounds that it had failed to respond to the country’s security challenges. The weekend’s events have sparked discussions surrounding Mali’s security architecture and exacerbated concerns on the potential rekindling of tensions in the north of the country. On Sunday, the constitutional referendum added another layer of contention between the state and members of the Permanent Strategic Framework (CSP), a coalition of armed groups. The CSP remains strongly opposed to the text proposed by Assimi Goita’s ruling junta because of its perceived non-compliance with the terms of the Algiers Accord.
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These developments are rooted in a long history of distrust between Mali’s central government and the country’s northern populations. The government’s failure to address these populations' aspirations for political representation and equitable access to resources has progressively fueled violent political contestation. The Algiers Accord in 2015 was signed as an effort to settle some of these tensions through reconciliation mechanisms, disarmament and reintegration initiatives, and development plans for the northern region. This negotiated peace agreement involves the pro-independence Coordination of Azawad Movements (CMA), pro-Bamako Platform, and the state. Following the signing of the accord, MINUSMA assumed partial responsibility for overseeing the implementation of the agreement.
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However, despite extensive international mediation efforts, the relationship between the various factions within the CSP – which today comprises the CMA and Platform - and the Malian state has become severely strained, leading to a deadlock. This is evidenced by signatory groups suspending their participation in the accord in December 2022.
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In a context where the implementation of the peace agreement appears to be frozen, the CSP’s disengagement from Mali’s democratic transition is poised to further erode the diplomatic relations between the signatories of the accord. Compounding this challenge is the question around MINUSMA’s mandate and presence which, even in its limited capacity, ensures the implementation of the peace deal and serves as a deterrent against escalating violence between former rebels and the Malian army. Finally, the entrenchment of violent extremist organisations in Mali – notably the Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP) and the Group to Support Islam and Muslims (JNIM) – adds another layer of complexity to Mali’s peace process as they maintain ties with several northern signatory groups. The future of the peace agreement is fraught with uncertainty, and the potential withdrawal of UN peacekeepers threatens to leave a dangerous security void. The question of whether Mali can effectively foster long-term peace and security hinges on who will step in to fill this vacuum, and whether robust reconciliation mechanisms will be implemented.
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Shortcuts to newsletter sections
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Paix et réconciliation au Mali : L’Accord d’Alger en danger
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El Watan-Dz, 01 avril 2023
Le processus de paix au Mali est sérieusement menacé. La crise entre les mouvements de l’Azawad basés au nord du pays et le gouvernement de transition malien a atteint son paroxysme après la révélation du contenu de la nouvelle réforme constitutionnelle en début mars. Dans une déclaration rendue publique le 28 mars, les différents mouvements du Nord-Mali, regroupés dans le CSP-PSD (Cadre stratégique permanent pour la paix, la sécurité et le développement), ont accusé Bamako d’avoir renié ses engagements contenus dans l’Accord de paix signé en 2015 sous l’égide d’Alger.
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Escalating Tensions Risk Return To Civil War In Mali
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ADF, 14 March 2023
Tension is escalating in northern Mali, where a fragile peace plan is teetering on the verge of collapse. The Tuareg rebellion ended in 2015 with the Algiers peace accord, but because it has never been fully implemented, the conflict between former rebels and the government has festered. With Mali’s military junta taking a more adversarial approach in recent months, some fear that violent confrontations are on the horizon. Amadou Albert Maïga, a member of the National Transition Council that acts as a legislative body for the unelected government, recently said the Malian army would act soon.
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More reports
- Mali’s Algiers Peace Agreement, Five Years On: An Uneasy Calm / International Crisis Group, 24 June 2020
- In Mali’s Kidal, former rebels enforce law and order / Al-Jazeera, 16 September 2022
- Mali: Showdown between Assimi Goïta and Alghabass Ag Intalla threatens peace process (paywall) / The Africa Report, 22 February 2023
- Survol de Kidal par un avion de l’armée malienne : y a-t-il eu violation du cessez-le-feu? / RFI, 7 avril 2023
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A Process in Search of Peace: Lessons from the Inter-Malian Agreement
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International Peace Institute, June 2017
The 2015 Bamako Agreement was supposed to usher in a new era of peace and stability in Mali. However, not only has there been little progress in implementing the agreement, but the security situation remains volatile. This state of affairs is all the more troubling given the international community’s mobilization in support of the Malian state. Why, in spite of this mobilization, are some warning that the peace agreement is in danger of collapse?
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Mali, four days of meetings and negotiations for peace in Rome
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Focus on Africa, 11 February 2022
Four days of meetings and negotiations in Rome brought facoing each other the government of Mali and the Tuareg groups of the north of the African country. This important moment of confrontation was organized by Ara Pacis Initiatives for Peace Onlus which succeeded in the very difficult task of getting the government of Bamako to talk to the former rebels. These armed groups, which are mainly of Arab and Tuareg ethnicity, have been playing a leading role in Mali crisis for many years, even before the country was overwhelmed by the jihadist wave. The military council led by Colonel Assimi Goita understood that it was necessary to come to terms with the representatives of the region called Azawad.
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Tension entre Bamako et Kidal : Que peut encore la médiation internationale ?
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Afrimag, 11 avril 2023
Au lendemain du survol, le 5 avril dernier, de la ville de Kidal par un avion de chasse de l’armée malienne, la communauté internationale a entrepris une médiation entre Bamako et Kidal à l’effet de relancer le processus de paix d’Alger. En effet, dans un communiqué datant du dimanche 9 avril 2023, la Médiation internationale, composée de l’Algérie et des représentants des cinq pays membres permanents du Conseil de sécurité de l’ONU annonce qu’elle a présenté au gouvernement malien et aux ex-rebelles du nord regroupés au sein de la Coordination des mouvements de l’Azawad (CMA), «des propositions concrètes visant à relancer la mise en œuvre de l’Accord pour la paix et la réconciliation nationale issu du Processus d’Alger».
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More reports
- Mali : la médiation internationale à Kidal pour sauver l’accord de paix / RFI, 02 février 2023
- Mali: Tebboune receives ex-rebel signatories of the peace agreement / Africanews, 27 February 2023
- Le Mali et l'Algérie veulent relancer l'accord de paix d'Alger / VOA, 27 avril 2023
- Mali : ce que l'on sait des propositions de la médiation pour sauver l'accord de paix / RFI, 11 avril 2023
- Algiers struggles to keep Mali's long-running peace talks alive (paywall) / Africa Intelligence, 11 May 2023
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Mali: What the fusion of the Azawad movements will change
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The Africa Report, 14 February 2023
The three entities united within the Coordination of Movements of Azawad (CMA) announced their merger at the start of the month. With the Goïta Administration mired in controversy relative to the CMA, this is a highly symbolic movement. It was one of his priorities. When he took over the rotating presidency of the Coordination of Azawad Movements (CMA) in July 2022, Alghabass Ag Intalla immediately reiterated his desire for formal unity. On Wednesday 8 February, the main representatives of these Tuareg movements met on the sandy ground of the Mano Dayak stadium in Kidal to announce their merger into a single political and military entity, ushering in a new phase of history.
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Mali : les anciens rebelles du CMA et du CSP-PSD toujours opposés au référendum constitutionnel
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RFI, 07 juin 2023
Au Mali, les anciens rebelles maintiennent leur opposition au référendum constitutionnel. Les autorités de transition ont annoncé un vote le 18 juin. Il sera organisé partout, sauf dans certaines zones du Nord contrôlées par les groupes armés signataires de l’accord de paix de 2015, notamment Kidal et Ménaka. La Coordination des Mouvements de l’Azawad (CMA) et la plateforme du CSP-PSD se sont réunies de samedi à ce mardi 6 juin à Kidal. Elles ont rencontré la médiation internationale dimanche. Mohamed Elmaouloud Ramdane, est porte-parole du CSP. Pour lui, il n’est toujours pas question de soutenir l’initiative tant que l’accord de paix n’est pas relancé.
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Analysis: Mali faces spectre of anarchy after demanding UN's departure
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Reuters, 18 June 2023
Mali's unexpected demand for the departure of U.N. peacekeepers may herald a sudden end to a decade-long mission that has struggled to protect civilians and its own troops, raising fears the country could slide deeper into chaos amid an Islamist insurgency and the possible revival of a separatist uprising. The U.N. mission, known as MINUSMA, has been hobbled by restrictions on its air and ground operations since Mali's ruling junta joined forces with Russian military contractor Wagner Group in 2021. That has limited its effectiveness against an Islamist insurgency that took root a decade ago and has since spread across West Africa.
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More reports
- Mali: Avoiding the Trap of Isolation / International Crisis Group, 9 February 2023
- Mali, Algeria, and the uneasy search for peace / ECFR, 4 October 2018
- Rahmane Idrissa : « La mission de l’ONU au Mali était devenue impossible » / Le Monde, 19 juin 2023
- Au Mali, l’accord de paix était-il voué à l’échec ? (paywall) / Jeune Afrique, 15 mai 2023
- Separatist armed groups’ fusion risks sharpening the political and security crisis in Mali / Global Voices, 26 February 2023
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